On Friday (13 March, 9:27 AM, GMT+7, Bangkok time), major indices in the Asia Pacific registered a varied performance as oil benchmarks surged, reflecting concerns that prolonged hostilities in the Middle East could exacerbate energy supply disruptions and threaten global economic stability.
Crude futures posted significant gains in the previous session. Brent crude climbed 9.22%, finishing at $100.46 a barrel for the first time since August 2022, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced 9.7% to $95.70.
Market volatility increased after Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, delivered remarks Thursday indicating that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, raising the possibility that Tehran could further escalate the conflict if tensions persist. The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Alireza Tangsiri, reinforced these warnings, promising severe retaliation against adversaries.
Goldman Sachs projects Brent to average $98 per barrel through March and April before easing to $71 by the fourth quarter of 2026, though a month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push the average to $110 before retreating. The investment bank also cautioned that prices could surpass the 2008 peak of $147.50 if shipping constraints persist.
In response to energy market strain, the United States Treasury authorized a temporary exemption permitting purchases of sanctioned Russian oil currently at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the move as an effort to stabilize markets amid a “temporary disruption.” Additionally, the Trump administration is set to suspend a century-old law governing American shipping between domestic ports to help mitigate rising oil costs, while discussions are underway for possible U.S. Navy escorts of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks.
U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the surge in oil prices, noting that the U.S. stands to benefit from higher energy prices. He reiterated that his administration’s primary focus remains on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons rather than solely on energy costs.
Investors are awaiting new economic indicators, including upcoming U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index data. Analysts anticipate a year-on-year increase of 2.9% for January, with the core rate expected at 3.1%.
Meanwhile, futures markets reflect shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy in light of geopolitical developments. Projections for 2026 interest-rate cuts have been scaled back since the onset of conflict, with rate reductions now priced in at 20 basis points by year-end, compared to 61 previously. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, while traders look for potential changes in its outlook against the current backdrop.
This morning, Japan’s NIKKEI dropped by 1.01% to 53,905.24. South Korea’s KOSPI fell by 0.86% to 5,534.98, while Australia’s ASX 200 rose by 0.17% to 8,643.50.
As for stocks in China, Shanghai’s SSEC slid by 0.02% to 4,128.17. Hong Kong’s HSI decreased by 0.11% to 25,687.80, while Shenzhen’s SZI grew by 0.28% to 14,415.69.
The U.S. stock markets edged down on Thursday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1.56% to 46,677.85. NASDAQ slumped by 1.78% to 22,311.97, and S&P 500 plummeted by 1.52% to 6,672.62. VIX jumped by 12.63% to 27.29.
Meanwhile, gold futures shrank by 0.01% to $5,125.40 per Troy ounce.
