Krungsri Securities (KSS) reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ recommendation on Thaicom Public Company Limited (SET: THCOM), keeping a target price of THB 13.00 per share, as fears surrounding EOS Orbit’s expansion following fresh funding are premature, with THCOM’s longer-term outlook supported by potential project wins and new satellite initiatives.
THCOM’s share price fell roughly 20% within a week after news that Jasmine Technology Solution (JTS) injected capital into EOS Orbit. The move raised concerns about intensifying competition in the low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite segment. However, Krungsri’s assessment indicates EOS remains at an early stage, with a smaller operational scale and a narrower service offering than THCOM.
The brokerage noted that building a competitive LEO network would require time, estimating at least two years to assemble a sufficient satellite fleet even with adequate funding. In contrast, THCOM benefits from holding Thailand’s orbital slot rights and continues to operate an established satellite portfolio.
Recent share price movements have been driven by a mix of supportive and negative factors. Positive drivers include expectations surrounding the USO #3 project and developments in LEO partnerships, while downside pressure stems mainly from the perceived threat posed by EOS.
Krungsri maintained its financial projections for THCOM, forecasting a net loss of Bt149 million for 2026, broadly unchanged from 2025, as its base case does not yet factor in any contribution from USO #3. The project, currently under review by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), covers five regions nationwide with an estimated total value of THB 5.5 billion.
Should THCOM secure roughly half of the contract value, the brokerage estimates that about THB 1.4 billion would come from construction and installation within the first year, potentially adding THB 210 million in profit assuming a 15% margin. This could shift THCOM from a projected loss into profitability in 2026. Additional recurring income from service provision—estimated at THB 220 million annually over five years—could contribute around THB 33 million in yearly profit starting from 2027.
Beyond USO #3, THCOM is expanding into LEO satellite services. Its current partner, Globalstar, has been working with the company since 2022 on ground station development in Thailand, supported financially by Apple Inc. Further partnership announcements are expected this year.
Regarding concerns over EOS, the company was founded by Mr. Supiti Buranawatanachoke and family members, and focuses on small satellite production and related technologies. As of now, it operates only two LEO satellites, primarily serving geospatial and remote sensing applications, including projects with Geo-Informatics and the Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA).
While the THB 500 million investment from JTS is expected to accelerate expansion, Krungsri highlighted that a fleet of at least 20 satellites would be needed to compete effectively, with each unit requiring roughly 18–20 months to develop and launch.
Meanwhile, THCOM currently operates five satellites, with two more under construction and scheduled for commercial deployment within three years. Its services span broadband connectivity and broadcasting across multiple markets, including Thailand, Australia, India, and Myanmar.
Following these developments, Krungsri reiterated that recent THCOM’s share price declines present a buying opportunity, maintaining a constructive stance on the company’s prospects in the near term.
