Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) stated in a research note that Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (SET: TIDLOR) reported a 5% loan growth in 2025, a figure below its initial target of 10%. This outcome primarily reflects the company’s deliberate credit selectivity strategy rather than weak demand in the lending market. Active customers grew 9% year-on-year, reaching 1.2 million by year-end 2025, pointing to a continued robust demand for TIDLOR’s financial products.
In a move to strengthen portfolio quality, TIDLOR has trimmed its exposure to higher-risk segments. Truck loans experienced a slight decline of 1% YoY, while auto title loans and motorcycle title loans recorded moderate growth rates of approximately 5% and 11%, respectively. Management indicated that loan growth could reach up to 10% in 2026, fueled by an anticipated recovery in the truck lending segment. Early performance reports for the first two months of 2026 show an improved loan growth run-rate compared to the previous year, though ongoing geopolitical tensions might temper the company’s growth momentum going forward.
KKPS forecasts a 13% normalized earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for TIDLOR, underpinned by a recovery in lending activity and a more efficient cost structure. Falling funding costs are expected to support margin expansion, while disciplined underwriting has led to more moderate credit costs. Operational efficiency improvements are also forecasted to further enhance profitability in the coming years.
On the insurance front, TIDLOR continues to impress with strong premium growth and increased market share. Despite being Thailand’s second-largest broker, TIDLOR’s market share remains modest at around 3.85%, up from 3.55% in 2025, signaling plenty of room for further expansion. TIDLOR’s key strength is a highly diversified distribution ecosystem—through branches, agents, online channels, and partnerships with insurers—coupled with flexible installment payment options. Notably, 90% of TIDLOR’s customers are non-captive, highlighting the company’s broad market appeal.
With its transition to a holding company structure now complete, TIDLOR is set to receive dividends primarily from its core operating subsidiary, NTL. NTL will finalize its 2025 dividend distribution by May 2026, after which TIDLOR will determine payouts to its shareholders. While management’s long-term ambitions and potential inorganic investments remain strong, this broader growth agenda has prompted the company to lower its payout assumption to 30%, from the previous range of 50–60%.
In light of these shifts, KKPS has revised its price objective downward to THB 21 from THB 23 to account for expectations of lower lending yields and a more conservative dividend payout policy. Despite the adjustment, the broker reiterates a “Buy” recommendation, citing TIDLOR’s robust balance sheet and highly diversified revenue streams as key strengths underpinning its future outlook.
