Krungsri Securities (KSS) maintains a positive outlook on Thailand’s ICT sector, projecting robust earnings and free cash flow (FCF) growth over the coming year. Sector earnings are expected to rise by 17% year-on-year in 2026, primarily led by industry heavyweights Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) and True Corporation (TRUE).
Krungsri stated that the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) recently approved a reduction in the monthly tariff for the ‘Thong Fah’ or ‘Welfare’ prepaid package, from THB 240 to THB 210. While the effective date for the new pricing has yet to be finalized, it is anticipated to take effect around mid-2026.
This Thong Fah package, initiated by the government agents to alleviate living costs, will now offer 6GB of internet usage and 70 minutes of voice calls, with no SMS, representing an increase from 2GB of data and 30 minutes of call time in the previous version.
The impact of the package on operators’ profitability is likely to be limited as market participants had already been alerted to the possibility of this tariff reduction since NBTC’s indication in mid-2025. Furthermore, the package is not a new offering, having been first introduced in 2021 by ADVANC, TRUE, and National Telecom (NT) to support consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its current version is only one of various available prepaid options.
From a competitive perspective, Krungsri points out that the new THB 210 price point for the Thong Fah package is less compelling compared to other prevailing prepaid packages, such as the THB 200 package, which provides 20GB of data for 30 days—a more attractive value proposition for data-conscious consumers. As such, subscribers looking to economize will likely opt for better-value packages instead of shifting to the new Thong Fah offering.
Importantly, the new Thong Fah tariff remains higher than the average prepaid tariff currently realized by ADVANC and TRUE. In the event that the Thong Fah package gains unexpected popularity, Krungsri argues that it would likely be accretive to average revenue per user (ARPU) for the prepaid segment rather than dilutive.
Looking ahead, Krungsri forecasts ADVANC’s earnings to increase by 7.9% year-on-year in 2026, and by 3.3% the following year. TRUE is anticipated to demonstrate even stronger momentum, with projected earnings growth of 40% in 2026 and 20% in 2027.
On valuation and strategy, the analyst reiterates its positive stance on the sector due to the expected earnings upcycle and appealing dividend yields, with TRUE being preferred over ADVANC. Both are rated ‘Buy’ with target prices of THB 19.00 and THB 390.00 per share, respectively.
