Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has assessed that Thailand’s power sector is well-positioned to withstand the disruption in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from Qatar, with minimal risk of nationwide blackouts and a manageable impact on electricity tariffs. The analysis comes as the ongoing geopolitical tensions at the Strait of Hormuz have effectively halted LNG shipments from Qatar, leading to increased feedstock costs for gas-fired power generation in Thailand.
As of January 2026, Thailand’s power generation portfolio is consisted of 63% natural gas, 22% renewables, and 13% coal. Notably, 64% of Thailand’s gas supply is sourced domestically, with a further 9% imported from Myanmar. Imported LNG makes up 27% of Thailand’s gas consumption, with long-term contracts from Qatar accounting for most of this volume (21 percentage points).
KKPS believes that Thailand’s power grid remains resilient to the current LNG supply shock. The impact of lost Qatari imports is expected to be buffered by the flexible use of hydropower in the short term and the country’s coal reserves. For instance, the Mae Moh coal-fired power plant, a key facility, contributes between 2,200 and 2,600 MW—roughly 5.5%-6.5% of peak national electricity demand. Thailand currently maintains a comfortable reserve margin of 30-40%, bolstering system stability. Consequently, the risk of large-scale blackouts remains low, according to KKPS.
KKPS forecasts that the government and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) will step in to shield consumers from the brunt of higher gas costs, similar to measures taken during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. At that time, despite a doubling in gas prices, power tariffs increased with a lag of six months and were limited by significant government subsidies.
In early 2022, tariffs held steady at THB 3.8-3.9 per unit, only rising by THB 0.63/unit later in the year, even as gas costs soared by 54% to a peak of THB 517/mmBtu. EGAT subsidized the difference, with total support reaching around THB 150 billion, and a remaining balance of THB 42.7 billion after partial clawbacks.
KKPS estimates that renewed subsidies at previous levels could maintain power tariffs at approximately THB 3.88/unit for the next seven months, in line with guidance recently provided by the Energy Ministry on March 18, 2026.
A closer look at the earnings implications shows that small power producers (SPPs) will bear the brunt of higher LNG costs, especially those with a high proportion of revenues from Ft-linked industrial users. For instance, industrial contracts account for 32% of BGRIM’s and 30% of GPSC’s revenue, but the cost increases cannot be fully passed on due to government-mandated constraints on Ft (fuel tariff) adjustments.
In contrast, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) such as GULF are less exposed thanks to more robust cost pass-through mechanisms and lower industrial user exposure (only 6%).
KKPS’s sensitivity analysis indicates that for every THB 1/mmBtu increase in gas prices, net profits could decrease by 0.7% for BGRIM, 0.4% for GPSC, and just 0.04% for GULF. According to recent corporate guidance, gas prices are expected to rise from THB 270-290/mmBtu to THB 350-380/mmBtu, potentially squeezing margins for SPPs without full tariff pass-through.
In summary, Thailand’s energy sector is expected to weather the LNG supply disruption with limited operational risk, but some listed power producers—especially those with heavy exposure to industrial users—may face earnings headwinds as the government steps in to contain the impact on consumers.
