Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has expressed optimism over the growth prospects of Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), citing the company’s strong positioning ahead of Thailand’s new Power Development Plan (PDP). Yuanta expects clarity on the new PDP by May 2026, following the completion of the new cabinet, with the expectation that the power generation sector will enter an upswing.
Key drivers for GULF’s upcoming growth cycle include rising electricity demand, particularly from significant incoming investments in the data center business, and Thailand’s accelerating push toward renewable energy in response to Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties and the country’s Net Zero target by 2050.
Referencing the 2024 draft PDP, Yuanta estimates potential new power generation capacity may reach 60,000 megawatts, with more than half from renewable sources. Large-scale power plants (IPP and cogeneration) are forecasted to capture at least 6,000 megawatts. In the latest 5,200 MW round, GULF secured 1,700 MW, holding a substantial 32% market share. If GULF maintains a 20% share in the upcoming round (about 12,000 MW), its equity-owned capacity could double from the current 10,000 MW, with further upside from future joint ventures not yet reflected in forecasts or stock price.
Thailand’s growing data center sector is another growth vector, with the BOI estimating infrastructure demand could reach 5,000-6,000 MW in 3-5 years (from just 150 MW in 2025), while Gartner sees demand exceeding 1,000 MW by 2028. GULF aims for 1,000 MW of data center capacity by 2030, valuing this segment at THB 9.30 per share based on a 900 MW capacity, 80% utilization, and profit of THB 20 million per MW.
Although GULF’s business demands high capital, the company benefits from low financing costs, planning THB 50 billion in investments in 2026 for PPA-backed projects—and already issuing THB 35 billion in bonds at an average rate of 2.36%. Its interest-bearing debt to equity ratio stands at 0.9x, well below its 3.5x policy ceiling, supporting investment of up to THB 130 billion over five years even before new PDP opportunities are included.
Yuanta has raised its net profit forecasts for GULF in 2026 and 2027 by 9% and 7% respectively, projecting profits of THB 33,956 million (+18% YoY) and THB 34,995 million (+3.1% YoY), driven by higher solar project revenues and improved contributions from group companies ADVANC and THCOM. Earnings per share in 2026 are now forecast at THB 2.27, with additional upside possible once the new PDP is finalized.
Valuation methodology has shifted from SOTP to a conservative PER of 40x, aligning with historical averages during GULF’s growth cycles. Yuanta raised its target price for 2026 to THB 91 per share, maintaining a “Buy” rating and naming GULF its top pick in the power sector for the year. The analysis notes GULF’s expansion beyond energy into IT, digital infrastructure, and commercial banking, which further supports its long-term growth potential.
