Maybank Securities (Thailand) maintains a positive outlook for Thailand’s SET Index, keeping its year-end 2026 target at 1,500, based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times. While the ongoing conflict in Iran poses a downside risk, Thailand is equipped to handle the resulting energy constraints.
According to the brokerage, the country’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas is mitigated by sufficient reserves, alternative supply sources, increased domestic production, export controls, and a greater emphasis on renewable energy. This combination should allow Thailand to manage supply security and affordability during the energy crisis.
In terms of pricing, the government can employ the Oil Fuel Fund, as well as possible subsidies from state-owned enterprises such as EGAT and PTT, to contain price increases for at least four months. Should the crisis persist, direct budgetary subsidies may be necessary. Maybank notes that Thailand starts from a position of low inflation, offering the economy greater resilience to higher prices than others.
On the economic front, MIBG has revised down Thai GDP growth for 2026 to 1.8% from the previous projection of 2.1%. However, the brokerage believes that private investment and public infrastructure spending remain bright spots, especially under the incoming Anutin government, which continues to prioritize these areas as part of its Economic Revitalization Plan.
The administration aims for GDP growth of 3% and seeks to increase the investment-to-GDP ratio to 30%, from roughly 20% at present. With a stable political environment, Maybank anticipates a ramp-up in infrastructure project spending, with public project tenders potentially reaching up to THB 1.1 trillion in 2026-2028—an increase of nearly six times compared to 2023-2025.
Maybank’s top stock picks are structured around three central themes. The first category is “policy winners,” expected to benefit from increased private investment and infrastructure development; recommended stocks include WHA, AMATA, and CK.
The second group, labeled “post-war beneficiaries,” consists of stocks such as GPSC, AOT, and MINT, which have recently undergone significant corrections due to the war but are poised for a rebound if the conflict ends as Maybank anticipates a shorter, weeks-long rather than a prolonged confrontation.
Lastly, the brokerage highlights resilient domestic companies, such as SPALI and TRUE, which are somewhat insulated from war-related impacts yet have also experienced market corrections.
