Thailand’s power sector is expected to face increasing LNG costs rather than outright supply shortages, according to recent analysis from FSS International Investment Advisory (FSSIA). With Thailand importing 26-31% of its LNG from the Middle East—mostly from Qatar—any prolonged supply disruption would primarily result in increased costs. In 2025, Thailand’s LNG imports are projected at around 8.8 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), with Qatar representing approximately 7% of Thailand’s total LNG imports.
FSSIA’s base case foresees a tighter but manageable supply environment, while a worst-case scenario would involve a sharp surge in LNG prices.
The analysis highlights that imported LNG now comprises 26% of Thailand’s total gas supply. Should LNG prices continue rising, electricity tariffs (Ft) would need to reflect increased costs, potentially rising by around 40 satang/kWh. However, if the government caps tariffs at THB3.95/kWh—an increase of just 7 satang/kWh—small power producers (SPPs) would absorb much of the cost, facing about 32 satang/kWh in additional expenses.
Of the major SPP operators, GPSC is noted as most exposed, with an estimated earnings downside of about THB950 million under current gas prices, followed by BGRIM and WHAUP. Nevertheless, the impact is expected to remain manageable in the short term. Medium- to long-term prospects are supported by potential reductions in gas costs from 2027, upcoming capacity expansions, and new project opportunities aligned with the government’s new power development plan (PDP) anticipated in late 2026 or early 2027.
FSSIA frames its investment outlook for Thai utilities around three themes:
- IPP winners – Companies with contracted cash flows such as GULF, RATCH, and EGCO.
- AI beneficiary mega force – Utilities well-positioned for hyperscale data center demand; prominent names include WHAUP, GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and BCPG.
- Deep value and overseas growth – Firms trading at attractive valuations with overseas expansion potential, notably BGRIM and GPSC.
Sector Rating and Top Picks
FSSIA maintains an “Overweight” rating on Thailand’s power sector, driven by catalysts including burgeoning AI data-center requirements, government “Quick Big Win” measures, and international plant expansion. Top sector picks are GULF, WHAUP, and BCPG.
