Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, during the “Kaohoon” program on March 23, 2025, set the support level for the SET Index at 1,430 – 1,420 points, and a resistance level of 1,450 – 1,460 for today’s session.
He expects the Thai market to slightly decline along with the regional markets trend, with the upstream energy sector buoying the market. However, he anticipates negative sentiment in other sectors, particularly DELTA which may potentially offset the energy sector’s gain. For this week, the analyst forecasts the Thai market to move sideways with volatility depending on the development in the Middle East war.
Mr. Pobchai stated that as the war entered its fifth week, the situation was expected to be prolonged after the Houthis rebel entered the war on the Iranian side, which threatened the Red Sea shipping route. Previously, the Strait of Hormuz blockage has prompted the Gulf nations to divert their oil shipment through the Bab al-Mandab Strait near Yemen.
The involvement of the Houthis group raised concerns over the blockage of the western strait, which will effectively close down all of Middle East oil shipment routes, affecting both Asia and especially Europe.
For this week, Mr. Pobchai recommends investors closely monitor three key factors including 1) The Hormuz situation, particularly Iran’s move on easing the blockage, 2) The oil prices, as both Brent and WTI crude have surpassed $100 per barrel, and 3) The U.S.-Iran peace talk, which is anticipated to occur this week in Pakistan.
Mr. Pobchai added that the complete formation of the new government, and subsequent implementation of support measures such as excise tax cuts for diesel, is estimated to bolster the Thai market in the short-term.
For 2Q26, the analyst stated that there are no significant revisions to the quarter’s outlook, as listed firms are monitoring the war situation. However, he expects downward revisions to the quarter’s outlook, with EPS being downgraded from THB 94 to THB 91 or high-80-baht level if the average oil prices in 2026 surpass $100 per barrel.
Mr. Pobchai highlighted two investment themes for investors with appetite for risk, including:
1) Stocks that can hedge against oil price risks including
- Upstream energy sector including PTT, PTTEP, and BANPU.
- Petrochemicals sector including PTTGC, IVL, and SCC, as these stocks benefited from increased spread.
The analyst recommends investors adopt the “Accumulation” strategy on the aforementioned stocks, especially when the share or oil prices have shrunk.
2) Stocks that can pass-through the rising cost on to customers, or stocks in the critical sectors including
- Telecommunication sector including ADVANC and TRUE
- Hospital including sector BDMS, BCH, and CHG
- Retail including CPALL, BJC, and CPN.
The analyst recommends a medium-term investment strategy for the aforementioned stocks, as they are considered safe.
