Presales momentum in Thailand’s property sector is forecast to remain weak in the first quarter of 2026, according to Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS). The sector is expected to see both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines, driven by subdued new launches, low consumer confidence, and overall unfavorable market conditions.
Aggregate new project launches by the top ten listed developers are projected to reach just THB 30 billion in 1Q26—the lowest level since 1Q21—marking a substantial drop of 30% YoY and 59% QoQ. Of these, landed property launches are anticipated to contract by 38% YoY and 74% QoQ, while new condominium launches are set to decline 24% YoY and 13% QoQ.
Among developers, Supalai Public Company Limited (SET: SPALI) is expected to stand out, with presales estimated to grow 15% YoY to THB 7.7 billion (+33% QoQ), supported by gains in both landed and condominium segments. Notably, the Supalai Loft Tha Phra Interchange project has achieved a 50% take-up rate on a THB 3 billion project value, contributing to strong condo sales.
Other major players will not fare as well. AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: AP) is forecast to register the highest presales volume at THB 11.2 billion but this reflects a YoY decline of 7% and a QoQ drop of 20% due to fewer landed property launches.
Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI) follows with THB 10.9 billion in presales, down 18% YoY but up 18% QoQ on the back of condo sales. Land & Houses (LH), meanwhile, is expected to record the weakest performance with presales at just THB 3.4 billion, down 7% YoY and 11% QoQ, despite a low base and new projects such as Nantawan Prestige Ratchapruek-Prannok.
Overall, the top ten listed developers’ combined presales for 1Q26 are estimated at THB 49 billion, representing a 15% YoY and 5% QoQ decline. Landed property presales—making up 60% of the total—should fall 7% YoY and 9% QoQ, while condo presales are set to drop 20% YoY but remain flat QoQ.
Despite the challenging environment, KKPS believed that AP, SIRI, and SPALI should report improved residential revenue YoY in 1Q26 due to a low base in 1Q25 and presales backlog transfers. However, gross profit margins are likely to come under pressure across all developers, with notable YoY compressions projected: 31.5% for AP, 26.0% for LH, 30.1% for SIRI, and 38.8% for SPALI.
