Kasikorn Securities (KS) expresses a neutral view on Synnex (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: SYNEX), following the company’s 1Q26 analyst meeting.
SYNEX’s revenue for 1Q26 grew modestly by 1.4%, primarily due to a shortage in key products, particularly Apple items such as the iPhone, which saw a year-on-year decline in sales. However, sales of MacBook, iPad, and Apple Watch increased by 14%, 15%, and 6% year-on-year, respectively.
Within the IT consumer segment, total revenue declined by approximately 7%. Sales of IT consumer components also experienced significant contractions, with DRAM down by 46%, SSD by 15%, and flash cards by 2%, while video cards and HDD sales rose by 10% and 14%, respectively. Despite the decline in overall sales for this group, profit grew by around 15% due to improved profit margins, attributed to higher product prices, which offset the lower sales volume.
The commercial and enterprise segments demonstrated robust growth, with revenue increasing 54% and 18% year-on-year, respectively, driven largely by the notebook project, which surged by 437%.
Additional growth came from government projects, commercial notebook sales up by 107%, and commercial PC sales up by 30%. These gains were mainly attributed to replacement cycles, Windows refreshes, and the growing adoption of AI-enabled PCs.
Looking ahead to Q2 and Q3, revenue growth will largely depend on product supply availability. If the supply chain remains sufficient, SYNEX expects to reach its target revenue growth of 10%, or THB 53 billion, as forecast.
Nonetheless, Kasikorn sees potential downside risks to 2026 sales, even though the company continues to maintain its 53-billion-baht sales target and reports a strong commercial and enterprise backlog that extends through mid-year.
Currently, SYNEX holds inventory sufficient to support approximately 30 days of sales. The company clarified that distributor sales have lagged behind IT retailer sales because IT retailers still held adequate stock in their stores during the first quarter of 2026.
SYNEX anticipates Apple Premium Resellers (APR), which purchase products from the company, may also encounter supply shortages starting in the second quarter, except for COM7, which is able to source products directly from Apple.
Regarding new products, SYNEX has set a sales target of THB 400 million for its solar category in partnership with Huawei, benefiting from tax incentives. Sales of Huawei products continue to perform well, and new product launches are expected throughout the second and third quarters of 2026. Notably, Huawei product sales grew by over 100% from a low base in 2025.
Furthermore, Nintendo product sales have already reached 21,000 units in 2026, and a global price hike scheduled for August is expected to allow SYNEX to benefit from a price gap in inventory acquired at previous, lower prices.
Following these, Kasikorn maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating on SYNEX, with a target price for 2026 of THB 11.86 per share.
At the end of the trading session on Friday, the share price of SYNEX closed at THB 9.20, showing an increase of THB 0.05 or 0.55%, with a trading value of THB 3.88 million.
