Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), provided his outlook on the Thai stock market and the overall economic situation during the ‘Kaohoon’ program on April 16, 2026, noting that a key development influencing the market is the positive signal from the recent de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has led to a decline in global risk indicators.
Regarding the Thai stock market (SET Index), Mr. Koraphat highlighted that the market continues to show signs of recovery, targeting a key level between 1,550 and 1,600 points. Although short-term volatility may arise due to DELTA Electronics (Thailand) (DELTA) being placed on the Cash Balance restriction, sector fundamentals in energy, petrochemicals, and industrial estates remain robust.
Notably, the updated target price for The Siam Cement (SCC) has increased to THB 245 from THB 202 per share, attributable to its ability to secure sufficient feedstock until mid-year, alongside positive momentum from low-carbon cement products and improving cement prices.
Confidence in the steady inflow of foreign capital into the Thai stock market also remains high.
One factor to monitor is DELTA’s inclusion on the Cash Balance restriction, which could impact liquidity and contribute to early-session volatility. However, the positive trend witnessed in overseas technology stocks, such as those in Taiwan, may provide price support. Moreover, DELTA will remain eligible for the SET50 index in May, provided it does not remain on the Cash Balance restriction, owing to its sufficient liquidity (passing 9 out of 12 months required for inclusion).
On the policy front, the continued presence of a stable government and the implementation of clear economic stimulus measures are expected to offer support to domestic-focused stocks. The outlook for the energy and petrochemical sectors has also stabilized, with crude oil prices expected to remain within the range of $75–95 per barrel this year. The $75–85 per barrel range is deemed conducive to supporting economic growth and the earnings of listed companies.
Furthermore, the business cycle for refining and petrochemical industries is projected to enter an upturn during 2026–2028, stemming from tight supply conditions. Earnings estimates have also been revised upwards for other petrochemical players, such as PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) and Indorama Ventures (IVL), given the recovery in demand—especially from China.
The industrial estate sector continues to show strong growth potential, bolstered by foreign direct investment (FDI) and Board of Investment (BOI) incentives. Amata Corporation (AMATA) is seen as an attractive value play, with its share price lagging behind that of WHA Corporation (WHA), despite both companies maintaining comparably strong fundamentals.
For short-term investment, the analyst favors Gulf Development (GULF), which benefits from the relaxation of energy sector pressures, Airports of Thailand (AOT) due to the tourism sector recovery and sustained earnings growth, and SCC, which stands out for its recovery in the petrochemical cycle and effective cost management.
Overall, Mr. Koraphat recommends investors continue to monitor geopolitical developments and global economic trends, as these factors could drive volatility in energy prices and the pace of demand recovery in global markets.
