On Thursday at 11:41 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SET: SCC) soared by 6.54% or THB 14.00 to THB 228.00, with a trading value of THB 3.10 billion.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) has adopted a more positive outlook on the petrochemical sector and anticipates that SCC will report a robust net profit of THB 5.4 billion for the first quarter of 2026, a significant improvement compared to a profit of THB 1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025 and a loss of THB 3.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This forecast is based on several key assumptions:
Firstly, the petrochemical segment is expected to benefit from potential stock gain, supported by a rising naphtha price trend. This should help offset the negative impact on total sales volume resulting from the force majeure declaration at the Rayong Olefins Cracker (ROC).
Secondly, DAOL expects the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran to disrupt the global supply of petrochemical products, thereby supporting high olefins product spreads throughout the second quarter of 2026.
Thirdly, SCC’s core profit is projected to post strong year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2026, underpinned by elevated olefins spreads. Additionally, it is anticipated that the crackers operated by Map Ta Phut Olefins Co., Ltd. (MOC) and Long Son Petrochemicals (LSP) will be able to secure sufficient feedstock and will not need to declare force majeure.
DAOL has revised up its net profit forecasts for SCC for 2026 and 2027 by 68% and 32%, respectively, to THB 16.6 billion and THB 14.1 billion (compared to THB 14.1 billion in 2025), mainly to reflect assumptions of higher olefins spreads and improved sales volumes for key petrochemical products such as PE, PP, and PVC.
The recommendation for SCC has been upgraded from ‘Sell’ to ‘Buy’ with a new target price of THB 250.00 per share for 2026 (previously THB 165.00), based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation.
The brokerage expects SCC to benefit from an improved outlook for the petrochemical market amid tighter supply caused by the Israel/U.S.-Iran conflict, which is expected to help maintain high olefin spreads throughout the year.
