Yuanta Securities (Thailand) anticipates strong earnings growth for listed companies in Thailand’s SET Index in the first quarter of 2026, both quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and year-on-year (YoY). Profits are expected to reach THB 290 billion, representing a robust increase of 29% QoQ and 7% YoY.
This substantial QoQ growth is attributed to the low base in 4Q25, which was adversely affected by the political vacuum following the government’s decision to dissolve the parliament and by floods in southern Thailand, particularly impacting service sector companies. On a YoY basis, the anticipated growth is mainly driven by the energy and petrochemical sectors.
Industry groups expected to deliver strong earnings growth on both the QoQ and YoY basis include telecommunications, refineries, petrochemicals, power plants, and tourism. Conversely, sectors likely to experience earnings slowdowns are electronics components, food, industrial estates, and medical services.
Additionally, certain groups such as beverages, construction contractors, and property development are forecasted to maintain stable QoQ earnings but should still see YoY growth.
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, Yuanta expects a slowdown in net profits, attributed to the seasonal slowdown in manufacturing, higher production costs stemming from elevated oil prices, and price increases in certain petrochemical and metal commodities.
The YoY comparison is further impacted by a strong base in the prior year, notably due to the recognition of one-off gains, such as SCC’s THB 15 billion restructuring profit.
Yuanta maintains its full-year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate at THB 87 per share and its SET Index target at 1,440 points. The brokerage sees more upside than downside risk, as the impact from rising energy costs is subsiding faster than previously anticipated. However, recommendations remain on the monitoring of extraordinary items such as gains or losses from oil hedging and foreign exchange volatility, which could potentially result in lower-than-expected reported profits at quarter-end.
Despite provisional positive trends in 1Q26 performance, Yuanta remains cautious about mid-year results as high oil prices may gradually raise production costs in 2Q-3Q26, potentially putting pressure on gross margins. The firm prefers to wait for further clarity on the impact on margins in the second quarter before making any revisions to its forecast.
The brokerage believes downside risks to their estimates are limited, and there is a greater likelihood for upward revision, particularly if government stimulus measures and accelerated budget disbursements further benefit GDP and corporate earnings.
Following these, Yuanta recommends speculative trading in stocks with expected strong 1Q26 performances, solid growth prospects for the remainder of the year, and attractive valuations. Noteworthy picks include ADVANC, TRUE, GULF, SCC, SCGP, ERW, SHR, BA, and CPALL.
