Krungsri Securities’ strategy team has released its predictions for the upcoming revisions to Thailand’s SET50 and SET100 indices, set to be officially announced in mid-June 2026 and effective from July 1, 2026. Based on analysis of market capitalization data from June 1, 2025, to April 16, 2026, the team has identified stocks most likely to enter or exit the indices, allowing investors to prepare in advance.
SET50 Entrants and Exits
According to Krungsri, four companies are highly likely to join the SET50 this round:
- Thai Airways International (THAI) with a 90% probability,
- Bangchak Corporation (BCP) with 80%,
- TFG with 80%,
- MRDIYT with 60%.
Meanwhile, stocks expected to be removed from the SET50 include BTS (90% probability), CBG (80%), SAWAD (80%), and OSP (60%).
The team’s analysis reveals that historically, buying stocks anticipated to enter the SET50 30-45 days ahead of their effective inclusion yields an average return of 6-7%. From 2005 to 2026, the average return for such stocks reaches 7.05% if purchased around 1.5 months prior to the effective date, with a 60% chance of an uptick. Conversely, stocks removed from the SET50 typically experience a pre-announcement decline averaging -3.65%.
SET100 Index Predictions
For the SET100, six stocks are expected to be included: THAI, MRDIYT, ITC, CKP, WHAUP, and THCOM, while six others—DOHOME, JAS, JMART, MOSHI, SISB, and SJWD—are seen likely to exit. Stocks within the SET100 tend to move within a narrow range in the 45 days before the rebalancing, with removed stocks more likely to fall. The limited impact on SET100 movements is attributed to the relatively low amount of passive fund assets benchmarked to this index.
Key Risks and Notes
The report notes that LH, OSP, BTG, and ITC have similarly sized market caps, with differences within +/-1.50%. This raises the possibility of position swaps depending on their performance in the coming weeks, particularly if LH underperforms.
Recommended Strategies
Krungsri recommends avoiding stocks expected to be removed from the SET50 or SET100 due to the risk of index fund weight reductions. Instead, the firm suggests speculating on stocks likely to be newly included in the SET50, specifically highlighting THAI, BCP, TFG, and MRDIYT.
