Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) stated that the current global crude oil prices are continuously on a downward trend as the end of the Iran war draws near. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have declined by 18.2% since the beginning of the month, with a key support level at $90 – 91 per barrel. Should it fall below this level, there is an opportunity for further decline.
This downward movement in oil prices has had a direct negative impact on oil and refinery stocks, which have historically been key pillars supporting the index. Leading the decline are PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP), PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT), and Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP).
Meanwhile, Thailand’s real economy, particularly the export sector, is signaling a robust recovery, with exports in April surged by 23% year-on-year. Additionally, the trend of easing trade barriers is improving in various countries, with Thailand’s tariff rate now dropped to 5.3%. These factors are major drivers expected to enhance the performance of Thai export-related stocks.
Previously, the structure of the Thai stock market had been supported by electronics parts stocks, whose prices had already risen significantly, making them the main drivers of the index. Therefore, an appropriate investment strategy at this time is sector rotation, shifting investment weight toward large-cap stocks that have lagged behind the index since the beginning of the year—groups with strong fundamentals and high potential for a return of speculative funds.
ASPS recommends focusing on two main investment themes:
1. Reopening theme, which benefits from the domestic consumption and tourism recovery, e.g., Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS), Minor International Public Company Limited (SET: MINT), and Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (SET: THAI).
2. Export theme: Food and agriculture stocks benefiting directly from Thailand’s strong export growth, such as Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF) and Thai Union Group Public Company Limited (SET: TU).
