On April 28, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, Director General of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, revealed that Thailand’s economic outlook for 2026 is on track for a gradual recovery despite headwinds from external factors and global geopolitical situations.
The Ministry of Finance forecasts that in 2026, the Thai economy will expand by 1.6%, with a projected range between 1.1% and 2.1%, mainly supported by both domestic and external demand.
On the export front, the value of merchandise exports in US dollar terms is expected to grow by 6.2%, driven by the recovery of demand from major trading partners and continuous export growth momentum from the first quarter, especially in industries rebounding in line with the global economic cycle.
Meanwhile, the value of merchandise imports is expected to increase by 13.9%, due to higher imports of capital goods and raw materials to support future investment and production needs, as well as the impact of higher imported energy prices.
Domestic demand is projected to expand robustly, serving as an important engine for economic growth. Private consumption is expected to grow continuously at 2.3%, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector, spreading income to the grassroots level, as well as government measures helping lower living costs and sustain household purchasing power.
Private investment is expected to expand by 3.2%, supported by rising requests for investment promotion, implementation of the Thailand FastPass project, and regulatory improvements prioritized by investors, especially in new S-Curve industries, including increased confidence among foreign investors in using Thailand as a production base.
The public sector continues to play a supportive role in the economy. Government consumption is expected to expand by 1.3%, with government investment growing by 1.7%, driven by accelerated budget disbursement and infrastructure investment projects.
Regarding economic stability, headline inflation is forecast at 3% per year, with a range of 2.5–3.5%, following the upward trend of global energy prices. This assumes an average Dubai crude oil price of $91 per barrel for the year. The current account balance is expected to post a surplus of $6 billion, or 1% of GDP.
The Ministry of Finance spokesperson stated that, amid challenges from global geopolitics, energy price crises, and technological change—especially AI—the Ministry is committed to driving the Thai economy to its full potential, creating opportunities for SMEs, and maintaining readiness for flexible fiscal management. The Ministry remains committed to sound fiscal discipline while being ready to adopt further accommodative policies if needed.
At the same time, the Ministry sets a goal to raise the share of national investment to 30% of GDP, particularly investment in green and digital economic infrastructure, to lay the foundation for long-term sustainable economic stability.
Nonetheless, close monitoring of several risk factors is necessary, including prolonged conflicts in the Middle East that may impact energy prices, global trade volatility—especially from protectionist policies, the El Niño phenomenon potentially causing higher temperatures and droughts, and financial vulnerabilities, particularly elevated household and business debt levels.
