KGI Securities (Thailand) (KGI) projected that PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) will report a 1Q26 net profit of THB 26.1 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter. The positive outlook is primarily driven by higher earnings from its listed refinery and petrochemical subsidiaries—PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC), Thai Oil PCL (SET: TOP), and IRPC PCL (SET: IRPC)—benefiting from larger stock gains and improved refinery margins.
Despite a high comparison base in 4Q25, due to a THB 7.5 billion one-off gain from the partial divestment in Taiwan’s Lotus Pharmaceutical, PTT’s 1Q26 net profit is still expected to grow. Excluding this divestment, net profit would rise 44% QoQ, indicating robust underlying business performance.
PTT’s standalone earnings are forecast to rebound, supported by a stronger contribution from its Gas Separation Plant (GSP) business. This follows a regulatory shift in Thailand’s natural gas pricing structure to the Utility model, effective January 2026, resulting in lower feedstock costs. Additionally, natural gas sales volumes are projected to increase 8% QoQ, supported by stronger demand from independent power producers (IPPs), while GSP sales volumes are expected to rise 14% QoQ due to no planned shutdowns.
KGI has raised its 2026 earnings projection for PTT by 1% to THB 115.4 billion and its 2027 projection by 3% to THB 121.8 billion. These upgrades reflect higher expected contributions from key subsidiaries due to an improved outlook for Dubai crude prices, refinery margins, and petrochemical spreads, underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, a THB 12 billion hedging loss is now factored into the 2026 forecast.
KGI maintains an “Outperform” rating and a 2026 target price of THB 41 for PTT, citing expectations of continued earnings growth and a positive outlook for core PTT-only earnings in 2Q26, benefiting from rising ethane and polyethylene prices. Risks include volatility in crude oil prices, gross refining margins, and petrochemical spreads.
