KGI Securities (Thailand) (KGI) wrote in its analysis a first-quarter 2026 update on Central Pattana Public Company Limited (SET: CPN), highlighting robust performance across the company’s core segments. During 1Q26, average daily traffic at CPN’s shopping centers increased at a mid-single-digit rate year-over-year.
Tenant sales outpaced traffic growth, led primarily by strong performance in the food segment. Notably, Central Park and Central Krabi, which opened in the second half of 2025, have reported solid occupancy rates, with visitor traffic surpassing expectations.
The hotel business has also shown improvement, with occupancy nearing 80%. However, average room rates remain soft compared to the previous year, due to weaker results from the Hilton-branded properties amidst heightened competition. The residential segment is expected to see stable revenue on a year-over-year basis, but a sequential decline from the previous quarter. This is attributed to the transfer of Escent Nakorn Sawan and Nakorn Pathom condominiums, which began in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In terms of financial performance, KGI estimates that CPN’s retail rental revenue will rise 7% year-over-year to approximately THB 11.5 billion in 1Q26, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 60-61%. Non-rental revenue is projected to remain flat at around THB 1.1 billion, with a gross margin of about 50%. Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses are estimated to represent around 17% of total revenue, consistent with levels in 1Q25 and showing improvement from its peak in 4Q25.
Financing costs are expected to be stable at THB 1 billion. The share of profit from associates—mainly from the recently completed Dusit Residences condominiums—is projected at THB 850 million, slightly higher than the previous quarter. With these factors considered, net profit is forecast to reach THB 4.6 billion, up 9% year-over-year but down 5% quarter on quarter. This figure accounts for around 23% of KGI’s full-year net profit forecast for CPN.
Looking ahead, KGI anticipates rental and service revenue to grow at 10% per year, largely driven by the opening of 2-3 new malls annually. In 2026, new properties include the 25,000 sqm Central Khonkaen, 45,000 sqm Central NorthVille, and a new 10,000 sqm luxury zone at Central Phuket.
For 2027, launches are planned for The Central (100,000 sqm) and Siam Square (30,000 sqm). Additionally, the ongoing transfer of Dusit Residences—valued at THB 10-11 billion and developed by a 30%-owned associate—will support CPN’s earnings.
On the non-retail side, CPN aims to expand its hotel portfolio by more than 20 properties (adding 440 keys) by 2030 and targets a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in residential revenue. KGI projects normalized profits of THB 20 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, for 2026 and THB 21.8 billion, an 8% growth year-on-year, for 2027. As most utility costs (85%) are borne by tenants, rising utility expenses should have minimal impact on CPN’s profitability.
Following these, KGI reiterates its ‘Outperform’ rating on CPN, maintaining a discounted cash flow-based (DCF) target price of THB 75.00 per share, using a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.5% and a 1% terminal growth rate.
