FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA) maintains a “BUY” rating for Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL) with a target price of THB 43, anticipating strong 1Q26 core profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.
The company is expected to report a normalized profit of THB 861 million (+2% QoQ, +17% YoY), supported by improved hotel operations and modest growth in its food business.
Hotel revenue, which accounts for 54% of total income, is projected to grow 19% QoQ and 14% YoY. This growth is attributed to higher provincial hotel occupancy rates (OCC up 10 ppt QoQ, 3 ppt YoY), and a significant increase in RevPAR in the Maldives (+47% QoQ, +55% YoY), driven by both existing and new hotels.
Meanwhile, food revenue is expected to be stable QoQ and up slightly by 1% QoQ, with same store and total store sales growth (SSSG, TSSG) at +1%, though demand softened in March.
EBITDA margin is estimated to improve to 31% in 1Q26 (from 30.4% in 1Q25), benefiting from operating leverage in the hotel segment. Share of profits from investments is expected to rise to THB 50 million, thanks to better JV performance in the food business and initial profit recognition from Lucky Suki, offsetting weaker Dubai hotel results where RevPAR dropped by 27% YoY due to Middle East unrest. Additionally, CENTEL may recognize a THB 1.4 billion gain from a sale-and-leaseback deal of a Japanese hotel, further boosting net profit.
FSSIA noted that 2Q26 profit is likely to decline both QoQ and YoY due to softer demand amid ongoing Middle East conflict and higher oil costs. RevPAR across all hotels (including Dubai) is estimated to fall around 15% YoY—with Thai hotels dropping 5-6% mainly from lower average daily rate (ADR) despite stable occupancy, and Maldives hotels seeing modest RevPAR growth of 2-3% from increased occupancy at new properties. The food business is also projected to experience a 1-2% decline in SSSG amid weak domestic consumption.
With a robust 1Q26 core profit expected to account for 43% of the full-year estimate, FSSIA maintains a DCF-based target price of THB 43 (equivalent to 29x 2026 P/E, near its historical trading average), while current stock valuation is at 21x (-1.0 SD).
Despite short-term uncertainties, FSSIA believes that easing oil prices and geopolitical tensions will positively impact tourism and hotel performance in Thailand, reduce losses from new Maldives hotels, and reinforce long-term growth prospects for the company.
