FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA) has reiterated its bullish stance on Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (SET: TIDLOR), selecting it as a top sector pick alongside KTC and maintaining its “BUY” rating with a 2026 target price of THB 23.
This optimism is rooted in TIDLOR’s strong 1Q26 net profit of THB 1.61 billion—17% above market estimates—fueled by sharp declines in expected credit losses (ECLs) and credit costs, which were well below the company’s guidance for the year.
Profit surged 56.4% quarter-on-quarter and 34.7% year-on-year, accounting for 29% of FSSIA’s full-year forecast. The sharp boost came as management refrained from adding further overlays and reaped benefits from improved asset quality, effectively reducing bad debt write-offs and lifting the coverage ratio to 340.5%.
Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) was THB 2.50 billion, aligning with forecasts, as lower operating expenses helped offset stagnating loan growth and weaker net interest income (NII) and fee income. Total loan growth remained modest at 0.3% QoQ and 4.9% YoY, mainly through motorcycle and car title loans. Notably, used truck hire-purchase loans showed their first quarterly recovery in eight quarters.
While loan spreads narrowed due to fewer business days, funding costs continued to improve—dropping to 3.21% owing to bond refinancing efforts—with further declines expected in 2H26.
Asset quality is improving beyond expectations, supported by strict lending standards and proactive write-off policies since 2024. The NPL ratio fell to 1.49%, while stage 2 loans also declined. Consequently, credit costs plunged to 1.74% in 1Q26, significantly lower than the company’s 2026 guidance range (2.50 – 2.80%) and FSSIA’s 2.60% assumption.
FSSIA maintains its forecast for TIDLOR’s net profit to grow at a 9.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2026 to 2028 but flags potential volatility. Credit costs could accelerate in 2Q26 depending on economic conditions, leading to potentially lower profits quarter-on-quarter. Still, risks are skewed to the upside for the full-year estimate: every ten basis point drop in credit costs relative to FSSIA’s 2.6% forecast could increase net profit by 1.5%.
Currently, TIDLOR’s share price trades at a discount to its five-year average P/BV, offering an attractive average dividend yield of 6–7% per year.
On Friday, the share price of TIDLOR at the time of 10:53 a.m. was at THB 17.50, a THB 1.00 or 6.06% increase with a total trading value of 579.87 million.
