Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, during the “Kaohoon” program on April 27, 2026, expects the Thai market to move sideways within range, setting a resistance level at 1,510 – 1,515 points, and a support level at 1,485 – 1,490, amid the alternating positive and negative pressures on the market.
As for the investment climate in the Asian stock markets this morning, most moved slightly in positive territory, with the South Korean bourse outstandingly rising due to its own positive factors, while other markets have not responded negatively to the United States’ rejection of Iran’s peace proposal, as the market has largely priced in this issue.
A key factor to watch this week is U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China during May 14-15 to discuss with President Xi Jinping. The market expects the agenda may cover the Middle East situation, particularly expediting negotiations with Iran and reopening routes in the Strait of Hormuz. If there is positive progress, it may benefit investment sentiment in the latter part of the week.
Another important issue is the new round of MSCI Rebalance on May 13. This round features revised free float calculation criteria, raising the possibility of some Thai stocks being downgraded if they do not meet the new standards. Large-cap stocks expected to be impacted include DELTA, PTTEP, TRUE, GULF, and AOT.
If weight reduction occurs, foreign funds tracking the index will gradually decrease their investment proportions, with an estimated $40-60 million in capital outflows, potentially pressuring the SET Index by around 1-1.5%. However, the impact is unlikely to be a sharp correction, but rather a gradual softening.
InnovestX recommends investors exercise caution in stocks at risk of weight reduction in the short term, particularly after the official list is announced, and suggests waiting to accumulate after the effective date, as many companies still have strong fundamentals, such as TRUE and GULF—the declines, if any, will likely stem from technical rather than fundamental factors.
Regarding 1Q26 earnings of listed companies, which is another short-term market supporting catalyst, InnovestX discovered that companies that has reported the earnings so far—accounting for about half the market value—saw profits grow 18% year-on-year and up 22% from the previous quarter, outperforming analysts’ estimates by around 11% on average.
However, while Q1 earnings are strong, close attention must be paid to the Q2 outlook, as rising energy costs and oil prices may pressure listed companies’ profit growth.
Still, better-than-expected Q1 earnings have eased pressure on downward revisions of market earnings per share (EPS) estimates, increasing the chance for market EPS to remain at around THB 94 per share for now.
