Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (SET: BEM) reported a 1Q26 net profit of Bt875 million, in line with expectations—growing 0.5% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter.
At an analyst meeting, management projected flat revenue and earnings for 2026, aligning with Tisco Securities’ forecast of a Bt3,859 million net profit for the full year, up 2.1% from last year. While commercial development revenue declined by 15.5% YoY, management anticipates a recovery ahead. Any July adjustment to Blue Line fares is expected to be minimal, and rising energy costs remain under control.
Recent May MTD (month-to-date) data showed a modest 1–2% YoY drop in toll traffic and Blue Line ridership, attributed to the ongoing Middle East conflict affecting economic activity and tourism. However, Tisco views this softness as transitory with the underlying demand remaining structurally sound, backed by Bangkok’s role as a commercial hub. A de-escalation in geopolitical tensions should help restore traffic and ridership trends.
On the project front, BEM’s key Double Deck expressway project is set to be awarded by August–September 2026, with financing in place. The South Purple Line (M&E) package is expected by late 2026 or early 2027. BEM is also exploring new motorway opportunities such as M5, M9, and Srinakarin-Suvarnabhumi. While discussions over a flat Bt40 all-day fare for MRT have not started, BEM will only agree to concession changes that protect stakeholder value.
Tisco maintains a BUY rating for BEM with a target price of Bt8.80, representing a 68% upside from the current share price of Bt5.25. The Double Deck and South Purple Line projects provide potential further upside beyond current estimates. Risks include weaker-than-expected demand and potential adverse MRT concession negotiations.
