Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) has reiterated its BUY rating on B.Grimm Power (SET: BGRIM), while slightly lowering its target price to THB15.50, down 3% in light of higher gas price assumptions. Despite anticipating weak earnings for fiscal 2026 due to elevated LNG prices, the brokerage believes this near-term pressure is largely priced in by the market.
According to MST, BGRIM’s core profit is projected to rebound significantly by about 30% year-on-year in FY2027, driven primarily by normalizing LNG prices and a full-year contribution from the Nakwol 1 offshore wind project in South Korea. Nakwol 1, which recently achieved 80% construction progress, is on track for commercial operation between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, with all permits secured. Its sister project, Nakwol 2, has received environmental impact approval and is awaiting tariff approval before starting construction.
The broker highlights BGRIM’s robust renewable energy (RE) pipeline, with new solar projects in the Philippines and Malaysia scheduled for completion between FY2026 and FY2028. Early this year, BGRIM also broadened its international portfolio by acquiring a 102MWe hydropower portfolio in the US, which has begun contributing equity income. Despite flat profit expectations for FY2026, MST forecasts a 13% CAGR in BGRIM’s core profit from FY2025 to FY2028.
Further upside could come from BGRIM’s venture into the data centre business through a partnership with Digital Edge. BGRIM holds a 40% stake in a planned 96MW facility, already underpinned by a major customer contract. The first 48MW phase, with 25% completion, is expected to add about THB288 million to FY2028 earnings—a potential 9% upside not yet factored into Maybank’s current forecasts.
Management also plans to address its net IBD-to-equity ratio of 2.0x through asset monetization, aiming to improve the overall balance sheet as it pursues ambitious growth in renewables and digital infrastructure.
