Thailand’s tourism sector is showing signs of recovery, despite ongoing challenges from higher travel costs and geopolitical issues, according to Finansia Syrus Securities. The head of the Thai Travel Agents Association sees the tourism industry in a state of rebound, with a positive outlook for the second half of 2026. This optimism is driven by a revival in Chinese visitors and increasing arrivals from long-haul markets.
Finansia Syrus projects international tourist arrivals in 2026 will reach approximately 33 million, with potential to rise to 34 million if the positive trends continue into the fourth quarter. Within the hotel industry, the luxury segment continues to outperform the mid- to lower-tier segments. The firm maintains its top pick recommendation on The Erawan Group (SET: ERW), suggesting investors “Buy” with a target price of THB 3.50.
The outlook for ERW’s second-quarter performance in 2026 suggests a seasonal slowdown but remains resilient year-on-year. The impact from ongoing conflicts is limited, while close-proximity markets continue to show strong demand, particularly from Chinese travelers. Growth across luxury-to-economy hotel segments helps offset a softer performance in the Hop Inn portfolio.
Finansia Syrus believes that easing geopolitical tensions could further accelerate tourist arrivals in the second half of the year. Additionally, ERW’s ongoing investments in new hotel projects are expected to support long-term growth, with normalized profit projected to grow by around 7% annually in 2026-2027.
Technical levels for ERW are seen with support at THB 2.80-2.76 and resistance at THB 2.94 and THB 3.02.
