The Erawan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ERW) is expected to see sustained year-on-year profit growth in the second quarter of 2026, according to recent analyses from leading securities firms. Meanwhile, quarter-on-quarter declines are flagged due to seasonal factors and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
According to Land and Houses Securities (LHS), ERW’s Q2 earnings are projected to improve significantly compared to the same period last year, largely due to a low base in 2025 and ongoing expansion of RevPAR driven by improving hotel occupancy rates.
Despite this yearly improvement, LHS notes that profits are likely to decrease on a quarter-on-quarter basis, reflecting the traditional low season and pressures arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
ERW has maintained its full-year 2026 revenue growth target of 9% year-on-year. The company expects to achieve this by capitalizing on growth in its upper-midscale hotel segment—anticipated to rise 7%—and an even stronger 14% growth forecast for the Hop Inn budget hotel brand, exceeding LHS’ estimate of 6% year-on-year growth.
Given these factors, LHS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for ERW, setting a strategic price target of THB 3.60 per share. This valuation implies an estimated 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 19x.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) provides a similar outlook, forecasting a sequential slowdown for ERW in the second quarter of 2026 due to seasonal trends but noting steady and solid year-on-year performance. The firm believes that the conflict in the Middle East has had only a minor impact on the company.
Demand in Thailand’s hotel market, especially from Chinese travelers, remains robust and is expected to support overall performance. Finansia points out that growth in ERW’s Luxury-to-Economy segment will help offset a temporary slowdown in the Hop Inn brand.
The brokerage predicts normalized profit growth for ERW of around 7% per annum for 2026 and 2027 and notes the company’s long-term investment in new hotel projects to further drive expansion. From a technical standpoint, ERW’s market momentum remains positive, maintaining an upward trend.
Based on these factors, Finansia also recommends a ‘Buy’ rating for ERW, with a price target of THB 3.50 per share.
