Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has reiterated its “BUY” rating on Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH), maintaining a price objective of THB 13.00, with shares currently trading at THB 9.50. Insights from the recent 1Q26 analyst meeting underscore improving prospects following a challenging start to the year.
Management reported that Thai patient revenue, which slipped by 3% YoY in 1Q26, has rebounded as of May—citing higher hospital utilization rates. Remarkably, Middle East patient inflows emerged as a new growth catalyst, with revenue surging 122% YoY to Bt114mn in 1Q26, the highest in eight quarters. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar accounted for the most dynamic growth, with revenues up 438% and 286% YoY, respectively, largely driven by diabetic foot cases. Management expects continued momentum post-Ramadan, with revenue growth likely through 3Q26.
For 2026, BCH continues to guide for mid-single-digit revenue growth, outpacing KKPS’ own forecast of 2%. Notably, management believes 1Q26 marked the bottom for earnings, projecting a robust profitability rebound in the second half of the year.
In regulatory developments, BCH highlighted a potential increase in Social Security Office (SSO) payment rates, currently under subcommittee review. The process could finalize within three to five months, encompassing payment hikes across all patient categories. KKPS estimates a 5% rate increase may boost BCH’s profits by 9% in 2027.
KKPS maintains a positive rating on BCH, citing attractive valuation at 18x 2026E P/E, with further upside possible from a confirmed extra dividend for 1H26 and potential M&A deals under consideration.
