Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has revised its earnings forecasts for Electricity Generating Public Company Limited (SET: EGCO), lowering 2026 and onward net profit after tax (NPAT) estimates by around 26-28%.
This adjustment stems from weaker-than-expected 2025 NPAT, mainly due to lower contributions from joint ventures, including the Paju gas turbine plant in South Korea and the Quezon replacement coal power plant in the Philippines, which commenced commercial operation in October 2025. KKPS now expects EGCO to post an NPAT of THB 6.7-6.9 billion for 2026-2028.
Despite the earnings downgrade, the brokerage raised its target price for EGCO to THB 143 (from THB 132) by switching to a discounted cash flow valuation methodology and updating certain assumptions, such as the risk-free rate, risk premium, and beta.
A ‘Neutral’ rating is maintained, noting that EGCO’s dividend per share is expected to remain stable at THB 6.5 for 2026-2028, equating to a dividend yield of 5.2%, which is above the sector average.
Regarding sector prospects, KKPS highlights that EGCO may participate in the Independent Power Producer (IPP) bidding under the next Power Development Plan. EGCO could leverage its expired Rayong Power Plant (REGCO) facility to enhance cost competitiveness in this process, which could act as a short-term catalyst for the stock.
Taking a look at the first quarter of 2026, EGCO reported net income of THB 875 million, with core NPAT at THB 970 million, representing a 40% year-on-year decline. This drop was primarily due to lower equity income contributions, particularly from Paju, Yunlin, and APEX projects. The results make up 15% of KKPS’ full-year estimate, and earnings are anticipated to recover in the second quarter, supported by seasonal factors and more project sales from APEX.
