Morgan Stanley remains positive on Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT), maintaining an Overweight rating and a target price of THB 75, following better-than-expected international passenger traffic numbers. Despite increased fuel prices, international traffic was flat year-on-year in May 2026, with year-to-date figures up roughly 2% from last year. Domestic traffic, however, saw a 9% decline in May, aligning with expectations.
The strongest international arrivals were from ASEAN, India, Japan, and the Middle East, while European arrivals saw the steepest decline, reflecting typical seasonal trends. Morgan Stanley notes that AOT’s infrastructure developments are bearing fruit, with the most significant disruptions from past passenger traffic downturns likely behind as fuel costs begin to stabilize.
The firm estimates that every 500,000 change in international passengers affects AOT’s earnings by 2.2% and net asset value by 1.3%. Currently, AOT is trading at 16 times its projected FY2027 EV/EBITDA—one standard deviation below its 10-year average—backed by a solid 20% return on equity and approximately 25 years remaining on its concession. Morgan Stanley continues to view AOT’s valuations as undemanding.
