Morgan Stanley has named Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) a Top Pick, raising its price target to Bt85.00 from Bt76.00, citing an increasingly attractive “rate of change” thesis as the company transitions from a power generator into an integrated provider of power solutions for artificial intelligence.
The target price at Bt85.00 implies 30% upside from the stock’s Bt65.25 close on July 27, 2026. The U.S. investment bank also maintained an Overweight rating on the stock.
The bank’s bullish stance is underpinned by the view that the US shale revolution is extending into Asia, as US hyperscalers seek AI power infrastructure abroad amid domestic pushback. Thailand’s tiered power pricing has also risen locally, while GULF is expected to deleverage going forward.
Key highlights from the report include:
- GULF’s planned $5 billion in new investments by 2030 could generate a 12% ROCE, outperforming global peers by 200 basis points as the company widens its total addressable market in powering AI ecosystems.
- Energy security is expected to de-risk future cashflows from merchant power, which accounts for one-fifth of power generation capacity, including LNG trading spreads.
- 1GW of planned data center infrastructure by 2030 implies roughly a quarter of GULF’s earnings will eventually come from powering AI adoption in Thailand and the US.
Morgan Stanley notes Thailand is emerging as a new data center hub with roughly 10GW of spare baseload power capacity. GULF aims to build and power 1GW of data center capacity, with about 100MW already in the pipeline, leveraging its power, satellite and telecom ecosystem alongside cloud and hyperscaler partnerships.
The integration across LNG sourcing, re-gasification, midstream pipelines, power generation and data center economics is expected to drive 50% EPS growth over 2025-2029e, with potential to beat Street estimates by 5-10% annually.
On funding, the report notes GULF’s net debt has risen 50% over the past two years, and the company generates $0.5 billion in operating cashflow, with dividends from its telecom stake (AIS) funding its $0.8 billion in annual investments. The $0.4 billion annual dividend is expected to be funded via debt or equity stake monetization in projects. With 2GW of equity-installed generation capacity starting by 2028, Morgan Stanley expects GULF can fund its AI data center and LNG/power infrastructure growth without raising leverage, while maintaining a 50% dividend payout ratio.
Morgan Stanley’s fiscal estimates project EPS of Bt1.96 in FY25, rising to Bt2.39 in FY26e, Bt2.67 in FY27e and Bt2.78 in FY28e, with EBITDA growing from Bt26,084 million to Bt37,682 million over the same period.
