Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on June 25, 2026, that the Thai market may potentially extend gain, inline with the Asian market trend, especially the Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese markets, which have seen a strong rebound following the recovery of technology stocks.
The main driving factor is clearer signs of de-escalation, which have led to a drop in energy prices and eased concerns over a potential second effect on inflation. This supports the expectation that inflation will decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. government bonds yield has eased to around 4.4% from its previous high of 4.5%.
The decline in bond yields has helped reduce pressure on tech stocks, which had previously faced selling pressure due to concerns over valuations and investment returns. As a result, the market is increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut in the coming periods, which in turn benefits overall risk assets.
For the Thai market, KSS estimates a resistance level at 1,570 points and a support level at 1,536 points. The market is expected to gain further momentum from the global tech stock recovery and supportive domestic factors after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the policy rate and upgraded the 2026 Thai economic growth forecast to 2.3%, reflecting a more positive economic outlook.
Additionally, the Bank of Thailand has factored the 400-billion-baht emergency borrowing decree into its economic projections, potentially signaling increased government investment in the near term. This may in turn highlight investment-related stocks, especially in construction, industrial estates, and power plants.
KSS views that the main investment themes currently center around three key sectors:
1. Beneficiaries of disinflation and lower oil prices, such as tourism stocks, including MINT and AOT, as well as the beverage, hospital, and retail sectors.
2. Sectors linked to investment flows, particularly construction, industrial estates, and power plants such as GPSC and GULF, which are expected to benefit from accelerated investment by both the public and private sectors.
3. Beneficiaries of lower bond yields, particularly finance companies like MTC, which will gain from lower financial costs and the improved investment atmosphere for interest-rate-sensitive stocks.
Regarding AOT, which has seen a significant price surge and strong net foreign buying, Mr. Koraphat noted that this results from easing concerns about oil prices and war risks, directly benefiting tourism, airline, hotel, and airport stocks.
AOT also benefits in the medium to long term from increasing the passenger service charge (PSC), which supports margins, while trends in tourist numbers and passenger volumes remain crucial for future growth. AOT is expected to outperform the market over the next year if the tourism industry continues its steady recovery.
Regarding the Indonesia’s stock market and MSCI, Mr. Koraphat explained that Indonesia still faces investment outflows due to persistent uncertainties in capital market standards, including free float, access to price discovery data, and currency stability. Since March, approximately THB 70 billion has left the Indonesian bourse.
If Indonesia fails to bring its market standards in line with MSCI criteria, further sell-offs may occur toward the end of this year, especially from passive funds, while foreign investors are expected to remain cautious until clear, positive developments in market standards and currency stability emerge.
