On Thursday at 3:52 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: PR9) added 3.55% or THB 0.60 to THB 17.50, with a trading value of THB 124.03 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that PR9’s revenue trajectory remains positive for the second quarter of 2026 despite certain headwinds. Preliminary figures for April 2026 suggest a year-on-year revenue increase of about 2–3%, even as the Songkran holiday reduced patient volumes and dampened revenue from Thai patients.
Notably, PR9 continued to see solid international patient demand, particularly from Middle Eastern patients who resumed treatment post-Ramadan.
For May, overall revenue held in line with the prior year, with a marginal dip in international patient revenue being offset by a rebound in revenue from Thai patients. Early June saw a broad-based recovery in both Thai and international patient segments compared to the previous month, supporting Krungsri’s view that second-quarter revenue growth would continue the positive direction set in Q1, despite persisting seasonal and geopolitical uncertainties.
Regarding profitability, management observed that EBITDA in May grew year-on-year, a result of enhanced cost management. The growth in top-line revenue for April and May was slightly slower than the 4% year-on-year increase seen in Q1, yet efficiency gains in cost control were evident.
Importantly, the hospital will not face the one-off inventory management costs that impacted 1Q26, nor the THB 3–5 million asset impairment charge incurred in 2Q25. This positions PR9 to deliver EBITDA growth that exceeds revenue growth in 2Q26, with visible year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter improvements due to a more favorable cost structure.
According to Krungsri, net profit has likely bottomed in the first quarter of this year. Recent figures for April and May reflect a measured recovery, and the upturn in both Thai and international patient volumes early in June has allayed earlier concerns regarding Q2 revenue. Additionally, the absence of one-time expenses that weighed on earnings in past quarters is expected to support a rebound in profit that outpaces revenue growth.
For the second quarter of 2026, the preliminary estimate for PR9’s net profit stands at around THB 190 million, representing a 4% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter increase. This is underpinned by an expected 2% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter rise in medical revenue, as well as an anticipated EBITDA margin of 22.5%, up from 21.4% in 2Q25 and in line with margins seen in 1Q26.
Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on PR9, with a target price of THB 23.00 per share, calculated via discounted cash flow methodology using a weighted average cost of capital of 8.3%. This target equates to a 2026 forward price-to-earnings multiple of 21x. PR9 remains a top sector pick alongside BDMS, with the analyst highlighting its status as a laggard relative to its underlying potential.
Value realization for PR9 is expected to hinge on three main factors: further margin expansion through cost efficiencies, increased volume in more complex medical cases leading to higher revenue per case, and the prospect of increasing its dividend payout ratio, buoyed by solid free cash flow—which is estimated to support an average dividend yield of around 4% per year.
The stock is currently trading at a 2026 forward PE that is two standard deviations below its historical mean, suggesting that downside risk is limited at current levels.
