At the end of the trading session on Thursday, the share price of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) exhibited a loss of 6.15% to $275.15 per share. This followed the company’s decision to implement an average price increase of approximately 20% for its iPad, Mac, and MacBook product lines.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) wrote that the price adjustment, which takes effect immediately across both Apple’s online and physical retail stores, represents a mid-cycle change intended to mitigate the impact of rising memory costs—a consequence of growing demand from the AI and data center sectors. This move is consistent with recent pricing trends observed in the notebook and gaming console markets.
The brokerage notes, however, that pricing for other Apple products, such as the iPhone, AirPods, and Apple Watch, has not yet been announced. Preliminary analysis suggests that due to the lower proportion of memory costs in the cost of goods sold for mobile devices compared to notebooks and tablets, any future price adjustments for smartphones may average below the 20% mark. For lower-end models, the percentage increase could potentially surpass that of higher-end variants.
Finansia regards this development as a slightly negative sentiment for shares of IT distributors in the Thai stock exchange, such as COM7 and SYNEX. The anticipated 20% increase in average selling prices (ASPs) for the affected product categories could have a dampening effect on consumer demand, given that iPad and Mac sales constitute an estimated 10–15% of COM7’s sales and 5–8% for SYNEX.
The brokerage conducted a scenario analysis to assess the impact on the IT and smartphone segments.
- In a bear case scenario, with ASPs up 15% and sales volume down 20%, the related companies might have to reduce gross profit margins (GPM) by 50 basis points.
- The base case assumes that the increase in ASPs will offset the potential decline in sales volume, resulting in stable GPM.
- In the bull case, if higher ASPs (up 15%) outweigh a smaller drop in volume (down 10%), overall sales may increase with steady GPM.
Despite the potential downward pressure on demand, Finansia maintains that, under the base case scenario, the higher ASPs should compensate for any sales volume decline. This is particularly significant given that the Apple–COM7 pricing model operates on a fixed GPM basis—meaning greater ASPs directly contribute to higher gross profit and help offset any drop in unit sales.
The overall outlook aligns with market data from IDC, which forecasts the global smartphone market value in 2026 to remain flat year-on-year. IDC projects a 14% decline in shipment volume to be offset by a 14% increase in ASPs, indicating the balancing effect between these two forces on total sales.
Looking forward, Finansia recommends investors closely monitor Apple’s pricing strategy for the iPhone, particularly with the anticipated integration of Siri AI features and possible launch of a foldable iPhone, which could boost demand even in the face of price hikes.
The brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for both COM7 (target price: THB 31.00) and SYNEX (target price: THB 12.50), recommending investors to buy on weakness at current levels.
