Thailand’s major commercial banks are set to announce their 2Q26 results, beginning with TISCO Financial Group on July 14, 2026, while others will report by July 21, 2026. According to TISCO Securities, the combined net profit of the seven banks under its coverage is expected to reach THB 58.2 billion, declining 7.5% year-on-year and 9.1% quarter-on-quarter.
The main reason for this quarterly drop is the absence of one-off gains, such as dividends from the Vayupak Fund and other special items at some large banks that occurred in Q1.
Excluding special items, the core operations of banks are expected to improve sequentially. This is attributed to stabilizing net interest margins (NIM), more stable credit costs, recovering fee income, and more efficient operating expense management.
Overall loan growth for the sector in Q2 is forecast at around 1.4%, based on April-May data. Economic uncertainties, especially from Middle East conflicts, have partly supported loan demand. NIMs are seen to stabilize around 2.93%, dipping just two basis points, as the Bank of Thailand is expected to hold policy rates steady.
Net fee income is estimated to rise 18% year-on-year, aided by a vibrant capital market, while operating expenses are forecast to decline 1%. Although high energy prices may impact some debtors, banks are expected to maintain credit costs at current levels, partly by restructuring loans for affected clients. The average group credit cost is forecast to decrease to 1.46% from 1.53% last quarter.
Key factors to watch include government bond yield volatility, which could benefit banks like Bangkok Bank (BBL) through investment gains. Meanwhile, the stable share price of Thai Airways (THAI) is expected to have no significant effect on banks holding its shares, such as Krung Thai Bank (KTB). The active capital markets should also favor fee income, particularly for Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP).
TISCO Securities believes that if Q2 results match expectations, especially with stable NIM and credit cost, it will improve confidence in 2H26 earnings and bolster full-year dividend forecasts, positively impacting bank stocks. Larger banks are preferred over smaller ones due to stronger NIM trends and foreign fund inflows, with KTB and Kasikornbank (KBANK) highlighted as top picks.
- KBANK is expected to report the highest Q2 net profit at THB 13.28 billion, increasing 6.3% from the same period last year but decreasing 9.5% from the previous quarter.
- SCB is forecast to post a net profit of THB 10.22 billion, down 20% year-on-year but up 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
- KTB is expected to report THB 10.09 billion, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year and 18.9% quarter-on-quarter.
- BBL is projected to have THB 8.68 billion in profit, dropping 26.7% year-on-year and 21.1% from the last quarter.
- BAY is likely to record THB 8.75 billion, rising 5.4% year-on-year and 1.5% from the previous quarter.
- TTB is expected to post THB 5.08 billion, up 1.6% year-on-year but down 1.7% quarter-on-quarter.
- KKP is projected to achieve THB 2.10 billion, marking the highest growth among peers with a 49.3% increase year-on-year and 7.6% growth quarter-on-quarter, thanks to robust capital market-related fee income.
Additionally, DAOL Securities expects TISCO Financial Group to post a 2Q26 net profit of THB 1.73 billion, a 5% increase YoY but flat QoQ. This is due to expected credit loss returning to a targeted range of THB 570 million, giving a credit cost of 1%. Provisioning is up 2% YoY but down 26% QoQ as there was no special management overlay this quarter.
