KKPS Projects Earnings Recovery For JMT in 2H26 From Potential ECL Reversion And Healthy Coverage Ratio

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on JMT Network Services Public Company Limited (SET: JMT), noting a stabilization in total cash collection for 2Q26 after year-on-year declines in the prior three quarters. Meanwhile, expected credit loss (ECL) declined quarter-on-quarter.

For 1H26, JMT’s net profit comprised 37% of KKPS’ full-year forecast and 41% of consensus projections, leading the brokerage to keep its model unchanged.

JMT declared an interim dividend per share of THB 0.27, with an ex-dividend (XD) date on 24 August. This equates to an 82% payout rate, notably above KKPS’ 2026 estimate of 75%, backed by a robust balance sheet and a net gearing ratio of 0.3x at end-2Q26. KKPS anticipates earnings recovery in 2H26, with possible upside from an ECL reversion.

Price target is assigned at THB 13.20 per share, based on a price-to-book value target of 0.7x and a forecast book value of THB 18.80 by year-end 2027. Forecast dividend yields stand at 5.7% for 2026 and 6.8% for 2027.

For 2Q26, JMT’s core profit reached THB 234 million, declining 5% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. This result aligned with KKPS’ own estimates but was 9% below consensus.

Total cash collection stood at THB 2.15 billion, flat both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Within this, JMT’s company-only collection was THB 1.2 billion (down 5% year-on-year, up 2% quarter-on-quarter), while JK Asset Management Company Limited (JK AMC) contributed THB 943 million (up 9% year-on-year, down 1% quarter-on-quarter).

Operating expenses were THB 538 million, down 3% year-on-year. ECL amounted to THB 277 million, up 7% year-on-year but down 16% quarter-on-quarter. Profit-sharing from JK was THB 80 million, up 20% year-on-year and down 30% quarter-on-quarter. New debt acquisition for 2Q26 was modest at THB 23 million, following THB 1.1 billion in 1Q26.

The loan-loss coverage ratio increased from 144% at the end of 1Q26 to 149% at the end of 2Q26, well above the 96% seen at the end of 2Q25. This substantial coverage potentially signals a peak in ECL, with room for reversals if cash collection improves in 2H26, according to KKPS.