On Monday at 12:05 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) surged 2.36% or THB 0.30 to THB 13.00, with a trading value of THB 1.21 billion.
KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote that recent news regarding some major shareholders potentially selling TRUE is unlikely to impact the company’s fundamentals, unless there is a broad strategic shift.
Although TRUE’s share price may face short-term pressure until the second quarter 2026 results and the analyst meeting on August 5, 2026, KGI views any further share price weakness as an accumulation opportunity, similar to the temporary correction after Telenor’s share sale in January 2026, when TRUE’s share price dropped about 15%.
KGI expects earnings in the second half of 2026 to outperform the first half, with the fourth quarter likely to be the strongest, supported by the tourism season, new smartphone launches, and ongoing cost-saving measures. The recent share price decline has also made TRUE’s valuation more attractive.
For 2Q26, KGI projects TRUE to achieve a record net profit of THB 6.8 billion, up 2% from the previous quarter and 232% year-on-year. Excluding foreign exchange gains, core profit is estimated at THB 6.7 billion, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 58% year-on-year.
First-half 2026 core profit is expected to reach THB 13 billion, a 54% increase from the previous year and 52% of KGI’s full-year core profit estimate. EBITDA is expected to increase by 1% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year, with the EBITDA margin improving to 61.9% from 60.4% in the first quarter, driven by revenue growth and cost savings.
KGI also expects TRUE to pay an interim dividend of THB 0.14 per share for 2Q26, representing a dividend yield of about 1.1%, based on a 70% payout ratio assumption.
Mobile business revenue is projected to grow 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year, driven by a net addition of 402,000 subscribers. Blended ARPU is expected at THB 222, up 1% year-on-year but down 1% quarter-on-quarter. For fixed broadband, revenues are expected to increase by 5% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, with ARPU rising to THB 531 and a net addition of 35,000 customers.
KGI maintains its ‘Outperform’ rating on TRUE but lowers the target price to THB 14.90 per share from THB 15.70, based on a DCF methodology with a WACC of 6.1% and a terminal growth rate of 1%. The revision reflects a higher estimated CAPEX for 2027-2028 to around THB 25-30 billion per year, versus the previous THB 21-26 billion estimate.
TRUE is believed to be entering a normal investment cycle after realizing synergies from its merger, necessitating increased investment in AI-related infrastructure and strengthening its fixed broadband network.
The brokerage has also raised its 2026-2028 profit forecasts by 2-3% due to better-than-expected cost savings, despite higher SG&A costs. TRUE currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of only 7x—lower than the global telecom average of about 8x—while maintaining strong earnings momentum, making it attractive as both a growth and dividend stock.
