Krungsri Securities (KSS) has indicated in its analysis of Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (SET: BEM) that service volume for both expressways and rail systems in June 2026 showed improvement compared to the previous month and the same period last year, reflecting a continued recovery in the company’s business.
The average daily expressway user volume in June stood at 1.09 million trips, representing a 0.7% increase from the previous month and a 0.4% rise compared to the same period last year. This marks the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, the average daily number of mass rapid transit (MRT) passengers reached 411,000 trips, up by 7% from the preceding month and by 1.4% year-on-year, recording year-on-year growth for the second consecutive month.
For 2Q26, the average daily expressway user volume was 1.08 million trips, a slight increase of 0.1% over the previous year. The average daily MRT passenger volume was 394,000 trips, a 2.1% rise from the same period last year. These figures indicate positive momentum in both of BEM’s core businesses.
In the first half of 2026, the average daily expressway user volume was 1.10 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Over the same period, the average daily MRT passenger volume was approximately 411,000 trips, marking a 2.1% increase from the prior year.
Krungsri stated that the service volume during the first half of the year remains in line with its forecasts. The brokerage expects the expressway user volume for the entirety of 2026 to remain stable compared to last year, whereas MRT passenger volume is anticipated to grow by 3%.
For every 1% increase in expressway user volume, BEM’s estimated profit for 2026 would increase by approximately 1.2%. As a result, expectations remain for BEM’s 2026 profit to grow by 3.4% from the previous year.
Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on BEM, with a target price of THB 8.20, despite the recent increase in share price over the past month. The brokerage believes that the decision to set ticket fares within the THB 17-45 range will help alleviate concerns regarding BEM’s potential relinquishment of the Blue Line and Orange Line concessions, and may further support profit growth in 2027.
At the same time, the approval process for the double-deck expressway project is ongoing. If BEM is selected to undertake this project, it is expected to add approximately THB 1.00 per share in value to the stock.
