Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on July 13, 2026, that the foreign fund inflows into the Thai market have been supported by the gradual resolution of previously overhanging factors.
These factors include the passing of the 2027 budget, and the Constitutional Court ruling that the 400-billion-baht loan decree does not violate the constitution. The loan is anticipated to enable the government to invest in various projects, which has boosted confidence among foreign investors.
Meanwhile, analysts have begun to revise their market earnings per share (EPS) estimates upward. At the start of the year, the EPS was around THB 94, but it was once revised downward to THB 91 – 92 amid Middle East concerns. Recently, it has rebounded to around THB 98, with the potential to reach THB 100.
Although 2Q26 corporate earnings may slow, they are not expected to be as weak as previously anticipated and could mark the year’s low point before recovery in the second half.
However, Mr. Pobchai emphasized that investors should continue to monitor three key factors: listed company earnings, U.S. tariff measures, and the Middle East war situation. The most important catalysts are the expiration of the U.S. Section 122 tariffs on July 24, and the implementation of the Section 301 tariffs. The Thai government is preparing to negotiate for tariffs reduction from around 12.5% to nearly 10%.
As for the Middle East conflict, the analyst estimated that it may induce periodic market volatility, but there is little concern that the war will escalate widely as crude oil prices have not surged beyond $80 per barrel.
InnovestX expects the SET Index to move within the range of 1,600 – 1,635 points this week, and Friday’s net institutional buy of more than THB 2 billion is not enough to confirm that selling pressure has ended, although signs of easing selling have started to appear.
For investment strategy, Mr. Pobchai expects the banking sector’s 2Q26 profits to decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, likely marking the lowest point before a recovery in Q3. Therefore, he recommends accumulating banking stocks after earnings announcements, highlighting KTB, KBANK, and BBL for their strong dividends and cyclical recovery.
PTTEP is expected to post Q2 profit growth YoY and QoQ, driven by higher selling prices and volumes. However, the analyst advised short-term speculative approach, as Q3 earnings may slow.
Other stocks expected to post both YoY and QoQ profit growth in 2Q26 include GULF, SCGP, IVL, MTC, and TIDLOR.
