The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has opened a public hearing on four proposed scenarios for the fuel adjustment charge (Ft) for September–December 2026. The range for Ft is set at 0.1623–0.9482 baht per unit, compared to the current 0.1623 baht per unit. When combined with the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit, this will bring the average electricity tariff to between 3.95–4.73 baht per unit, versus the current rate of 3.95 baht per unit.
The ERC also updated its assumption for natural gas prices (excluding pipeline fees) to 363.53 baht per MMBTU, an increase of 4.6% from the previous period’s 347.5 baht per MMBTU after PTT reviewed its cost structure. The public hearing will be held from 13–20 July 2026, before the official tariff is announced.
Asia Plus Securities’ research team holds a negative view on the Small Power Producer (SPP) segment. Despite the increase in natural gas costs, the ERC is likely to implement a new Clawback mechanism to compensate for the higher costs and keep the electricity tariff fixed at 3.95 baht per unit, aiming to shield consumers from higher living costs. As a result, the ability to fully pass on fuel costs to electricity prices remains limited, creating pressure on SPP operators’ performance in Q4 2026.
Among SPPs, BGRIM is expected to be most sensitive to changes in natural gas costs, followed by GPSC. For Independent Power Producers (IPPs) such as GULF, EGCO, and RATCH, the impact is limited due to their contract structure, which allows them to pass fuel costs on to EGAT.
