KGI Securities (Thailand) highlights several key factors for B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) as the stock recently outperformed sector peers. The most significant catalyst is BGRIM’s push into the data center segment, with higher returns than conventional power plants—net profit margins 5–10 percentage points higher and equity IRRs up by 3–5%.
BGRIM’s 96MW joint venture with Digital Edge is forecast to contribute THB 300–500 million in annual equity income (translating to approximately THB 3.5 per share), reflecting a 15–25% upside to normalized earnings once the project is fully operational. The company plans to increase its data center footprint to 300MW by 2030.
Another growth driver is the impending completion of the Nakwol 1 wind farm project, in which BGRIM holds a 49% stake. The 365MW project is 80% finished (as of June 2026), and earnings recognition can begin progressively as turbines individually start commercial operation, even before the full project is delivered. Full commercial operation is scheduled for the second half of 2026, with estimated annual equity income of THB 500–600 million.
Furthermore, there is also potential for a positive earnings surprise in the second quarter of 2026 from consulting income, particularly from projects in South Korea. This form of revenue has previously cushioned results during weaker quarters. KGI initially forecasts 2Q26 core profit at THB 260 million, down 45% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to sharply higher gas costs and an Ft rate of THB 0.16/kWh.
KGI noted that the share price has largely priced in the possibility of asset monetization on some gas and renewable projects, citing a report by Bloomberg months ago. The firm sees this as strengthening the company’s ability to tap new growth opportunities, including future direct PPA projects and expansion under Thailand’s forthcoming Power Development Plan. Every additional 100MW of solar capacity could generate THB 150–200 million in annual earnings, with a significant boost from data center expansion.
The analyst maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating, raising the target price to THB 23.50 (DCF, WACC 5.5%) for 2027 to reflect contributions from data centers, full value recognition at Nakwol, and lower gas price assumptions.
Core profit forecasts for 2026-27 have been trimmed by 2-10% to account for losses during the early stages of data center development, but 2028 profit is upgraded by 21% due to anticipated material contributions from data centers. Even with a projected 2027 PE of 25x, BGRIM trades below the public hearing period of PDP2018 (Dec) (35x) and PDP2024 (June).
