Following the release of second quarter 2026 earnings results from the commercial banking sector, which generally came in better than expected—except for SCB X (SCB) and Bangkok Bank (BBL)—Bloomberg Consensus has revised its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Thai stock market for 2026 upwards.
The EPS is now projected at THB 98.8, an increase from the previous revision to THB 97.5, and significantly higher than the initial forecast at the beginning of the year, which stood at THB 95.4. This adjustment is attributed to better-than-expected market profits in the second quarter of 2026 and in the first half of the year, as well as a positive outlook for petrochemical sector earnings.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) notes that 2Q26 earnings of the banking sector overall exceeded expectations by around 4%. However, some concerns remain, particularly regarding asset quality at SCB and the expense pressures at BBL. Nevertheless, the broader picture remains positive for the real sector’s performance, which also has the potential to deliver strong results.
These factors have led to a successive upward revision of the SET Index’s 2026 EPS outlook to a range of THB 98–100. Based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17x, this implies a potential SET Index target range of 1,680–1,700 points.
At the same time, Krungsri Securities (KSS) observes that the market has placed significant weight on the banking sector’s 2Q26 earnings. The performance of the Thai equity market in the first half of 2026 has been robust, with the SET Index closing at 1,591.24 points at the end of June, up 26.3% from the end of 2025 and a more than 30% gain year-to-date.
This outstanding recovery makes the Thai stock market one of the best-performing in Asia, driven by strong political confidence, clear economic policies, a revival of tourism and exports, and a consistent return of foreign capital inflows.
During the first half of 2026, the combined average daily trading value on both the SET Index and the Market for Alternative Investment (mai) was THB 65,931 million, representing a 57.5% increase from the same period last year. A major factor supporting this surge was net foreign investor purchases of THB 27,000 million.
From the beginning of the year until July 22, 2026, foreign investors have accumulated a net buy position of THB 70,678.28 million in Thai equities, in contrast to net sales of THB 78,797.76 million by domestic institutional investors and THB 3,453.23 million by retail investors. Meanwhile, broker proprietary trading accounts have accumulated net purchases of THB 11,572.71 million.
The Thai stock market ranks among the top three equity markets in Asia in terms of returns since the beginning of the year, trailing only the South Korean market. However, it leads Southeast Asia, outperforming the Singaporean and Vietnamese markets, clearly aided by capital inflows following the global artificial intelligence investment trend, particularly with sharp gains in blue-chip stocks like Delta Electronics (Thailand) (DELTA).
Additionally, the recovery in domestically-oriented stocks—supported by tourism, electronics, power generation, and government stimulus measures—has further boosted the market. The attractiveness of Thai equities is enhanced by a healthy average dividend yield of 4.2%, compared to the Asian market average of 2.9%, making Thailand an appealing destination for foreign investors seeking risk-adjusted returns.
Krungsri further highlights that robust earnings in the banking and petrochemical sectors during 2Q26 should support the market EPS target of THB 98.8. The brokerage recommends several key investment themes, including energy security and petrochemicals (such as PTTGC and SCC), energy plays (PTT, BCP, TOP), selected banking stocks (KBANK, KTB, KKP), telecommunications (ADVANC, TRUE), and construction plays (STECON, PYLON, INSET).
For defensive positioning, the brokerage suggests industrial estate developers (AMATA, WHA), utilities (GULF, GPSC, WHAUP), and strong fundamental stocks for medium-to-long-term de-escalation strategies (AOT, BDMS, BH).
