Fed Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 60% After Strong August Jobs Report

Hiring in the United States accelerated last month, even as the jobless rate remained flat, according to federal data released Friday. The job report that tripled the forecast put pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its policy rates.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 162,000 positions in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, well above the 53,000 gain that economists polled by Dow Jones had projected. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, in line with expectations.

August marked the largest one-month increase in payrolls since March, the data showed. In addition, the Bureau revised July’s employment figures upward by 43,000 jobs, moving that month’s total into positive territory after earlier estimates.

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move shifted following the release. The CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a rate hike in September climbing to 60%, up from an even 50/50 split before the jobs data was published.

President Donald Trump described the employment figures as a “great jobs number.” He also called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates rather than raise them.

“Great jobs number just announced, breaking all estimates (except mine!) by double and triple – And you haven’t seen anything yet! EMPLOYERS ADDED 162,000 JOB IN AUGUST,” wrote the president in his post on Truth Social. “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT,” he added.