On Monday at 11:14 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Asset World Corp Public Company Limited (SET: AWC) jumped by 9.70% or THB 0.26 to THB 2.94, with a trading value of THB 322.13 million.
Minor International Public Company Limited (SET: MINT) surged 3.14% or THB 0.70 to THB 23.00, with a trading value of THB 1.05 billion.
The Erawan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ERW) gained 2.50% or THB 0.08 to THB 3.28, with a trading value of THB 87.71 million.
Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL) added 4.83% or THB 1.75 to THB 38.00, with a trading value of THB 142.05 million.
InnovestX Securities has revised its forecast for international tourist arrivals to Thailand in 2026, increasing its projection from 31 million to 33 million. This adjustment reflects a milder-than-expected impact from the U.S.-Iran war, aligning with recent economic forecasts and the latest travel data. Between January 1 and July 18, 2026, Thailand welcomed 17.4 million foreign tourists, marking a 3.1% decrease year-on-year.
The brokerage anticipates that international tourist numbers will return to year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, underscoring a clear recovery in Thailand’s tourism sector. Key supporting factors include the high season, major global events such as the IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings and Tomorrowland Thailand, along with government tourism stimulus measures and a low base effect caused by last year’s southern floods.
Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations in the Middle East remains a crucial risk to monitor. InnovestX estimates that monthly foreign tourist arrivals need to reach approximately 2.3–2.4 million in the third quarter and 3.1–3.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2026 to meet the full-year target of 33 million.
Regarding hotel sector performance in the second quarter—traditionally the low season and impacted by the U.S.-Iran conflict—previews indicate ERW and AWC are likely to report year-on-year growth in normalized profit, though sequentially lower. ERW’s performance is supported by higher revenue per available room and lower interest expenses, while AWC benefits from operational cost control.
CENTEL and MINT are expected to be largely in line with expectations. CENTEL’s normalized profit is projected to grow year-on-year despite a quarter-on-quarter drop, as strong performances in Thailand and the Maldives offset weaker results from its Dubai joint venture. MINT’s normalized profit is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter due to the European travel season, but will see a slight year-on-year decline owing to EBITDA margin pressures.
Following the upward revision in tourist numbers, the brokerage has also raised its normalized profit estimates for hotel stocks: ERW by 15%, AWC by 11%, CENTEL by 7%, and MINT by 1%. This reflects each company’s varying reliance on Thai tourism, with ERW and AWC deriving more revenue from domestic hotels, and MINT relying more on international earnings.
InnovestX maintains a positive outlook on the hotel sector, expecting 4Q26 to benefit from robust tourism demand and major global events. ERW is highlighted as the top pick in the sector, generating 86% of its hotel revenue in Thailand and 21% from Thai customers—the highest figures among its peers. This positions ERW for strong Q2 profit and the potential for a new annual high in Q4. Additionally, the stock is trading at an attractive 2026 PER of around 17x, lower than its two-year average of 19x and the group median of 20x.
Moreover, CENTEL is also viewed as attractive, with the strongest forecast profit growth in the group for 2027 driven by new Maldives hotels and the recovery of its Dubai joint venture. Despite only a 6% increase in share price year-to-date—lagging ERW’s 31% and AWC’s 26%—market concerns about international operations appear priced in, and there are ongoing signs of business recovery.
