Krungsri Securities has issued a bearish outlook on Thailand’s agro & food sector, citing declining meat prices and rising breeding costs expected to pressure operator margins in 2026. The latest sector update highlights varying trends across key commodities over the past week.
Sugar prices surged by 5.3% week-on-week, propelled by a shift in the global 2026/27 supply outlook from a surplus to a 300,000-ton deficit, driven by fears of El Niño disrupting Asian production. Rubber prices gained 1.8% week-on-week as heavy rains dampened tapping days, while crude palm oil edged up 0.3% on continued strong B50 demand in Indonesia and increased exports from Malaysia to India. Soybean prices, however, fell by 1.7% as favorable rains improved U.S. crop conditions.
In the meat segment, broiler chicken prices in Thailand remained stable at THB 43.50 per kilogram (cost THB 37.50 per kilogram) due to balanced supply and demand. Thai swine prices climbed 3.4% to THB 70.30 per kilogram (cost THB 60 per kilogram), as rainy weather hindered logistics and pig growth, shrinking market supply.
Conversely, Vietnamese swine prices dropped 2.7% to VND 60,000 per kilogram—pressured by herd sell-offs aimed at disease control during the rainy season and tepid fresh market demand. Chinese swine prices eased 1% to RMB 10.32 per kilogram amid weak consumption due to heat waves, with major producers accelerating fattening pig sales.
Despite the challenging outlook, Krungsri maintains TFG as its top sector pick, rating it “Buy” with a target price of THB 11.50. The firm expects TFG’s normalized profit to hit a low in 2Q26 before recovering in the second half, fueled by an attractive quarterly dividend yield of around 8% per year.
