KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote in its analysis that over the past two weeks, domestic swine prices in Thailand have climbed 3% to reach THB 71.5 per kilogram, driven by steady consumer demand.
Should swine prices surpass and remain above THB 72/kg, this would notably exceed KGI’s 2026 forecast of THB 65/kg. Broiler chicken prices held steady at THB 43.5/kg, with balanced supply and demand.
Meanwhile, swine prices in China also saw an increase, rising 5% to CNY 10.9/kg amid elevated temperatures and rising demand.
Feed cost pressures have eased, with corn prices slipping 2% to THB 10.1/kg. Imports of U.S. corn are scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026, priced around THB 9.80/kg, totaling an expected 100,000 tons.
Further import decisions are pending due to quality considerations, especially as U.S. corn prices have increased following tighter inventories and concerns over Black Sea grain supply. This minor price advantage is not expected to offer significant savings for food processors, according to the analyst, while global soybean meal prices edged down 1.5% to $316.3 per ton.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) marginally raised its global soybean production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.1% month-on-month to 422.3 million tons following increased U.S. acreage, offsetting lower output in Ukraine. Consumption projections remain steady at 422 million tons, supporting stable imported soybean meal prices in Thailand at THB 16.5-17/kg.
KGI maintains a positive outlook for the meat producer sector, expecting continued recovery in chicken prices and exports during the third quarter of 2026, with current quarter prices up 7% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter.
As a result, the brokerage identifies GFPT as its preferred stock with a target price of THB 11.40 per share, and rates Betagro (BTG) as ‘Neutral’ with a target of THB 20.80.
