Asia Plus Securities wrote that Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS) delivered robust revenue growth of 8% year-on-year in July. Hospitals in Bangkok saw revenue rise 5%, while provincial hospitals recorded 10% growth. This positive momentum is expected to continue in August, reflecting a clear recovery from the previous low point and suggesting a strong turnaround in 3Q26.
International patients have resumed their role as a significant revenue driver. In July, revenue from the segment increased 6% year-on-year and rose 14% year-on-year, excluding Cambodia and the Middle East. Notable contributions came from Bangladesh (+56% YoY), Myanmar (+21% YoY), and the U.S. (+19% YoY). While revenue from the Middle East decreased 10% year-on-year, there are signs of recovery with over 3,500 appointments scheduled for August.
Revenue from Thai patients grew 9% year-on-year, bolstered by a return of complex case patients. Bed occupancy rates rose from 57% in the first half of 2026 to 65% in July, primarily supported by In-Patient Department (IPD), surgical, and complex care cases—which offer higher revenue and margins. Preventive care revenue also saw double-digit gains.
The insured patient group posted an 11% year-on-year revenue increase, up from 2% in 1H26, as both complex cases and respiratory disease cases returned, along with expanded cooperation with insurance companies.
Management has maintained its guidance for 2-4% revenue growth year-on-year and an EBITDA margin of 24%. The recovery of both Thai and international patient segments, increased complex case volumes, and the improved occupancy rate are expected to help offset higher costs and bolster performance in the second half of 2026.
Asia Plus holds an increasingly positive view for 3Q26, especially due to stronger-than-expected recovery in Middle Eastern patients, continued international patient growth, entry into Thailand’s high season, and the return of complex and deferred treatment cases. Additionally, a lower base from reduced Cambodian patient volumes since mid-2025 should support a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter rebound in both revenue and profits, with a potential for new highs this year.
Reflecting these trends, the brokerage has revised its 2026 normalized profit forecast upwards to THB 16.13 billion from THB 15.92 billion and increased its revenue projection to THB 111.87 billion, a 4% year-on-year rise.
Furthermore, Asia Plus maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for BDMS, with a 2027 target price of THB 25.00 per share, representing an approximate 26% upside from current levels. This is attributed to expectations of stronger earnings in the second half of the year and the return of high-margin patient segments.
