Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on September 2, 2026, stated that the Thai stock market in the short term is still facing pressure from external factors, especially the Middle East tension and rising U.S. government bond yields. These factors are negatively impacting global investment sentiment and are not unique to the Thai market.
During this period, global capital flows reflect selling pressure across stocks, bonds, and gold, while strong assets include the US dollar and crude oil. This indicates that investors are placing greater weight on risks arising from the war situation.
The acceleration of bond yields is driven by bond selloffs. The market is concerned about inflation outlooks and the policy direction of the Federal Reserve after signs showed that inflation remains high. This has led investors to place greater probability on the Fed adopting tighter monetary policies and raising interest rates to curb inflation.
Mr. Chaiyot stated that domestic factors are not the primary cause of selling pressure in the Thai benchmark. The overall domestic picture is still considered positive, including government investments and economic stimulus measures. However, the market cannot escape external pressures, particularly bond yields, oil prices, and the war situation.
For the investment strategy, KSS recommends focusing on stocks that benefit from the current situation. The first group is energy, which moves in line with oil price trends. However, investors still need to closely monitor the US-Iran situation because if tensions ease, it could cause oil prices to drop and trigger profit-taking sales in this group.
The energy stocks for which KSS has provided target prices include: PTT with a target price of THB 44.50, PTTEP with a target price of THB 175, TOP with a target price of THB 70.
Another sector that KSS highlighted is hospitals, estimating that revenue and profit in the third quarter of 2026 have a chance to grow from the previous quarter. This is because the sector is entering its high season, coupled with heavy rainfall this year which supports an increase in patient visits. Additionally, the number of travelers from the Middle East entering Thailand has increased despite the region facing uncertainties. This is a positive factor for hospitals with a high foreign patient base.
KSS’ picks include BDMS for those focusing on stocks whose prices have dropped significantly and have recovery potential, BH for those focusing on the Middle Eastern patient base, and PR9 as another option with a high proportion of foreign patients. The analyst also expects that the 3Q26 revenue and profit of the aforementioned names have an opportunity to increase from the previous quarter.
Regarding the SET Index direction, Mr. Chaiyot considered the current picture as more of a consolidation rather than a severe drop. He does not yet see the index retreating to the 1,500 level because the energy sector, which has a high weighting in the Thai bourse, continues to support the index. Additionally, the 2Q26 operating results of many listed companies grew strongly, and energy sector profits are likely to remain positive into 3-4Q26.
However, if the bond yields continue to rise, inflation does not fall, oil prices remain high, and the Middle East conflict does not resolve, the market still faces risks of further consolidation. KSS identifies the initial level to watch around 1,570 points. Conversely, if oil prices decrease and global inflationary pressures ease, it will help reduce concerns about the Fed’s interest rate hike path and return as a positive factor for risky assets.
