Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), said in the “Kaohoon” program on September 10, 2026, that the overall Thai stock market shows signs of improvement following the return of buying from foreign investors.
In this round, Thailand is considered one of the first markets in Asia to receive foreign capital inflows alongside Taiwan, before fund flows began spreading into South Korea and other regional markets.
Meanwhile, market participants are beginning to view inflation risks as manageable, while key support stems from the continuously accelerating AI Infrastructure investment cycle, leading to renewed interest in technology and high-growth stocks due to strong medium-to-long term earnings potential.
However, a key short-term risk factor is crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel and nearing $102.5, reaching a high of around two months. The rise in oil prices is a negative factor for many Asian countries, as most are net oil importers; if oil prices remain high for an extended period, it could increase trade deficit risks and leave economies more vulnerable.
Mr. Koraphat stated that the current average crude oil price relevant to Thailand sits around $87 – $88 per barrel. If oil prices remain above $100 continuously for about another month and a half, the average price could move above $95. Although this initially boosts earnings estimates for energy stocks and supports broader market profits, if prolonged for too long, these positive effects could turn into pressure on the economy and the equity market.
Regarding external factors, the market is keeping a close eye on U.S. inflation reports—particularly the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI)—which will be critical data for assessing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. KSS gives greater weight to the CPI figure because it directly reflects inflationary pressures passed on to consumers.
Initially, KSS views U.S. inflation as exhibiting sticky inflation (remaining high rather than accelerating sharply). Consequently, it estimates a 55% probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady and a 45% chance of a rate hike, though official inflation figures must be awaited to re-assess the situation.
Meanwhile, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbs, the market is monitoring the U.S. Treasury Department’s bond buyback policy, which increased long-term bond purchases to approximately $6 billion. Although lower than market expectations, KSS believes this measure will help limit the rise in bond yields, estimating that 10-year Treasury yields may not drift far from the 4.8% level.
For the Thai benchmark, Mr. Koraphat estimates that the SET Index may undergo initial consolidation, with support levels at 1,610 and 1,605 points, and resistance levels at 1,626 and 1,630 points. If the market can sustain itself through AI infrastructure-related stocks—such as semiconductors, power plants, and energy stocks—it will reflect the Thai market’s relative strength compared to regional peers.
Additionally, Mr. Koraphat views investment in data centers and AI infrastructure as a long-term structural opportunity for Thailand, given its readiness in power systems, water supply, land, infrastructure, and strategic location connecting various regions.
Regarding the collaboration between GULF and Singtel to invest in submarine cable infrastructure connecting Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore, Mr. Koraphat sees this as another signal reflecting Thailand’s opportunity to enter the AI infrastructure supply chain. GULF is well-positioned across telecommunications, utilities, and infrastructure; if it can efficiently manage investments and extend cash flows into new businesses, it will significantly unlock long-term growth opportunities.
At the same time, the arrival of major data center operators will help drive structural adjustments in Thai industry, particularly in applying AI across business sectors that require adequate databases, processing systems, and infrastructure. This is viewed as one of the best opportunities in 10 years for Thailand to witness a structural transformation in investment.
In the energy sector, KSS views PTTEP as directly benefiting from elevated oil prices, with potential upward earnings revisions, while midstream and downstream businesses maintain high margins expected to persist for approximately another year and a half.
Related stocks include PTTGC, TOP, SPRC, IRPC, and IVL, which stand to take turns benefiting from petrochemical cycles and refining margins. Even if stock prices consolidate when oil prices pull back, the medium-term structure retains a strong probability of continually establishing higher bases.
For short-term strategy, KSS recommends keeping an eye on PTTEP and PTT (beneficiaries of high energy prices), while AWC presents stock-specific positive drivers from a faster-than-expected earnings recovery and asset sale plans this month that could support short-term stock prices.
