Kasikorn Securities maintained its Outperform rating on CPALL and a Bt57.20 target price, forecasting stronger underlying third-quarter earnings despite a decline in reported net profit. The target offers 34.59% upside from the stock’s October 6 price of Bt42.50, with convenience-store growth and expense controls supporting the brokerage’s assessment.
Kasikorn valued CPALL using discounted cash flow with a 9.7% discount rate. Its target implies an average price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 times for 2026–2027, approximately one standard deviation below the historical forward P/E average.
Convenience stores underpin earnings
For the July–September quarter, Kasikorn projects core profit of Bt7.2 billion, excluding one-off items. That would represent a 10.8% increase from a year earlier, although earnings would fall 3.1% from the second quarter.
Reported net profit is forecast at Bt6.3 billion, down 4.2% year on year and 15.9% quarter on quarter. Seasonal pressures and a smaller profit contribution from CPAXT weigh on the quarterly comparison, while convenience stores and related operations are expected to deliver 27% year-on-year profit growth.
The brokerage estimates nine-month net profit at about Bt23 billion, an increase of 9.7%. This would account for 74.7% of its full-year forecast.
Convenience-store sales are projected to reach Bt123.6 billion, rising 8.6% from a year earlier and remaining broadly unchanged from the preceding quarter. Across the group, quarterly sales are expected at approximately Bt253.5 billion, up 4.5% year on year but down 1.4% sequentially.
Kasikorn’s forecasts put the store count at 16,435 by the end of the third quarter, compared with 16,284 three months earlier and 15,764 a year before.
Cost discipline supports profitability
Lower operating expenses relative to revenue are expected to help the convenience-store business. Kasikorn forecasts its selling, general and administrative expense ratio at 28.9%, a reduction of 100 basis points year on year and 30 basis points quarter on quarter.
The segment’s gross margin is estimated at 29.4%. While unchanged from a year earlier, this would be 10 basis points above the second-quarter level, supported by better margins on ready-to-eat products.
For same-store sales growth, the brokerage forecasts a quarterly average of 2%. Promotional campaigns and tourist demand helped drive an estimated 2–3% increase in July, before heavier rainfall slowed growth in August.
September growth is expected to have returned to 2–3%, as customers stocked up during severe flooding in Bangkok late in the month.
Flood disruption seen as temporary
Kasikorn observed shortages of some products, particularly ready-to-eat food, at certain 7-Eleven outlets following the late-September floods. It described the distribution disruption as limited.
Access difficulties at a small distribution centre required deliveries to be redirected through nearby facilities. The brokerage expects normal replenishment to resume by mid-October and does not anticipate a material impact on convenience-store sales, citing continued stockpiling demand at outlets in flood-affected areas.
For 2026 as a whole, Kasikorn forecasts revenue of Bt1.023 trillion and net profit of Bt30.7 billion, with earnings per share of Bt3.36. Its estimates put the stock’s 2026 P/E at 12.64 times and dividend yield at 3.88%, based on projected dividends of Bt1.65 per share.
The brokerage expects fourth-quarter profit to improve both from the preceding quarter and from a year earlier. CPALL is scheduled to release its third-quarter financial results on November 11.
