On Friday at 10:56 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) surged 4.03% or THB 1.25 to THB 32.25, with a trading value of THB 265.24 million.
Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (SET: BJC) rose by 2.16% or THB 0.40 to THB 18.90, with a trading value of THB 69.99 million.
Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: MOSHI) climbed by 0.72% or THB 0.25 to THB 34.75, with a trading value of THB 658,900.
MR. D.I.Y. Holding (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: MRDIYT) increased by 0.59% or THB 0.05 to THB 8.50, with a trading value of THB 5.01 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) noted in its latest analysis that the average same-store sales for the Thai retail sector in September remained steady YoY, closely tracking August’s level. This solid trend leads to the expectation that average SSS for the third quarter of 2026 will remain flat YoY.
Within the department store group, CRC posted a slight improvement with SSS at +2% YoY, up from 1.5% in August, largely due to more than 10% growth in Thailand’s food business. In the daily goods segment, performance remained steady, with positive developments seen in BigC (+3%, improving from +2% in August) and CPALL (+2-3% vs. +1-2% in August). Conversely, Lotus’s remained a drag on performance with SSS at -5%.
Conversely, the Lifestyle group, such as MOSHI and MRDIYT, showed negative signals with SSS growth slowing to +1% YoY in September, down from +5% in July and +2% in August, mainly due to the impact of flooding. MOSHI’s SSS decelerated to 0% from +8% and +4% in previous months. Despite 3Q26 SSS for the Lifestyle group still recording YoY growth of +2%, the declining monthly momentum suggests that near-term growth acceleration will be limited.
Looking to October, SSS is likely to improve from September, supported by several tailwinds. Early in the month, grocery and home improvement retailers are expected to benefit from stockpiling and purchases of flood-prevention products in flood-prone areas, with higher average bill sizes partially offsetting a decline in store traffic.
Post-flood, demand for home repair items, appliances, and furniture is expected to increase due to repair and replacement needs. In mid-October, department stores in Bangkok stand to gain from increased traffic during the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings held between 12–18 October 2026, with CRC likely to benefit significantly.
Additionally, late October may see support from low base effects, as last year’s retail sentiment was subdued during the royal mourning period. Overall, October’s SSS for the retail sector is projected to accelerate, particularly for urban players such as HMPRO, CRC, and CPALL.
For 3Q26, the group’s normalised profit (excluding IT products) is estimated at THB 14.1 billion (+9% YoY, -15% QoQ) against total sales of THB 509.2 billion (+3% YoY, -3% QoQ), indicating profit growth is driven more by margin expansion than sales growth. The average normalised margin is projected to rise to 6.0%, up from 5.9% in 3Q25, although down from 7.4% in 2Q26 due to seasonal factors.
At the company level, BJC is anticipated to post the highest YoY profit increase at +35%, followed by DOHOME (+33%), CRC (+23%), and GLOBAL (+20%), while CPAXT is the only company expected to see a YoY decline in profit (-14%). This supports the previous view that profit growth in 3Q26 is due to improved operating efficiency rather than sales acceleration.
The brokerage maintains a ‘Neutral’ investment weight on the retail sector, citing flat 3Q26 SSS and overall fragile purchasing power. However, CRC is selected as the top pick for near-term performance, given its strong expected profit growth in 3Q26 (+23% YoY). Moreover, 4Q26 should benefit further from increased traffic during the IMF–World Bank meeting and a low sales base in late October, providing SSS upside for the full year.
MOSHI and MRDIYT are still favoured for long-term investment due to their store and profit growth potential, but in the short term, the risk-reward profile has diminished slightly because of sluggish SSS momentum in the Lifestyle segment and limited short-term margin growth, slowing their 3Q26 profit expansion from earlier projections.
Both stocks also face overhang ahead of the upcoming SET50/SET100 index review, potentially capping share price momentum in the short term, even though their long-term fundamentals remain intact.
